The Eudaemons
Abafundi bezenzululwazi ngemvelo (physics), ivili lekhasino elathengwa ngemali ekhawulezileyo, kunye nekhompyutha encinci ngokwaneleyo ukuba inxitywe iye etafileni.
Ukususela ngo-1976 ukuya ku-1981 iqela labafundi be-physics eSanta Cruz lakha iikhompyutha zedijithali ezazilinganisa ixesha lebhola nelerotha zaza zibize icandelo levili ngelixa iibheji zisavulekile. Iimvavanyo zabo zathembisa inzuzo ye-44% kwaye iseshoni yokuqala ende yanika malunga nama-25%. Izixhobo zaqhubeka zisilela, inguqulelo eyakhiwa esihlangwini yoyiswa yingxolo yombane ngo-1981, kwaye baphumelela amawaka ambalwa eedola.
Intelekelelo kwibhari yaseLas Vegas, 1975
Ehlotyeni lowe-1975 uNorman Packard, umfundi we-physics, wachitha iinyanga ezimbini ebala amakhadi kwi-blackjack eLas Vegas nomhlobo wakhe, uJack Biles, kwaye phantse abazange bazuze nto. Kwisiselo sokugqibela uBiles wathi angabheja ukuba i-roulette ingoyiswa nge-physics, kwaye uPackard wakhumbula umgca ongacacanga kwi-Beat the Dealer kaEdward Thorp malunga nendlela ye-roulette. Bobabini baboleka isixhobo sokurekhoda, bema ecaleni kwamavili kwiikhasino eziliqela baza bankqonkqoza imakrofoni ngalo lonke ixesha ibholaizixhoboIbholaIbhola encinci ephoswa emzileni ngokuchasene nerotha. Iibhola zanamhlanje zenziwe nge-ivorine okanye nge-Teflon, zi-18–21 mm.Funda yonke → idlula kwindawo emiselweyo. Xa zazotywe kwiphepha legrafu, iinkqonkqozo zabonisa ibhola icotha kwaye iwa ngendlela eqhelekileyo. Umhlobo kaPackard wasesikolweni uDoyne Farmer, umfundi wesidanga esiphezulu kwi-University of California, Santa Cruz, wathi kukuchitha ixesha de wenza izibalo ngokwakhe: umntu onokulinganisa ixesha lebhola ukuya kutsho kwisinye kwishumi somzuzwana kufuneka, ephepheni, akwazi ukuthi iza kuwela phi kumanani ambalwa.
Ivili kwilabhoratri ye-physics
Entwasahlobo yowe-1976 uFarmer noDan Browne bahlawula i-$1,500 ngemali ephathekayo ngevili lekhasino elalungisiweyo kwindawo yokusebenzela eReno, besithi lelepati ye-fraternity. Kangangeenyanga babelithwala ebusuku besiya kwilabhoratri yokufundisa yeyunivesithi baze balilinganise ngee-sensor ze-infrared, iwotshi ye-elektroniki eyenziwe ekhaya kunye nekhamera eyayiqhubeka ngesandi sebhola ibetha intsimbi. Oko bakufumanisayo kusenguluhlu olufutshane oluhle lwezinto ezibalulekileyo kumjikelo. Umoya wenza uninzi lokucothisa, ngaphezu komzila. Ivili elingalinganiyo nangesinye kwishumi se-intshi litshintsha apho ibhola ishiya khona umzila, kwaye kwivili elithambekileyo ibhola ithanda ukuphuma kwicala eliphezulu, nto leyo eyenza ukuqikelela kube lula. Iibhola ziyahluka: ibhola ye-Teflon yacotha kabini ngokukhawuleza kunebhola eyenziwe ngomxube webhola ye-billiard. Kwaye xa ibhola ishiye umzila isatsiba, ngokomndilili ingadluli kwikota ukuya kwisinye kwisithathu sejikelezo. Ukutsiba kwakungumbuzo owawuxhomekeke kuwo sonke isicwangciso, kwaye kwakungabanzi ngokwaneleyo ukucima ukuqikelela. Ekupheleni kwehlobo babeka inzuzo enokwenzeka kwi-44%, inani elalinikwe nguThorp ngesixhobo sakhe.
Inkampani kunye nepayi
Eli shishini balibiza ngokuba yi-Eudaemonic Enterprises, kwigama lesiGrike elithetha ulonwabo lobomi obuphilwa ngengqiqo. Wonke umntu owasebenza kulo wayeza kuhlawulwa kwimali ezakuphunyelelwa ngokomlinganiselo weeyure azifakileyo: isilayi soko babekubiza ngokuba yi-Eudaemonic Pie. Imali ephunyelelweyo yayilungiselelwe ukuhlawulela uluntu lwabahlobo abenza inzululwazi ngemiqathango yabo.
Ikhompyutha phantsi kwengalo, 1976–1978
Umatshini wokuqala wakhula kwikhompyutha ye-kit eyafika ngeposi ngoSeptemba 1976 nge-$250, eyakhelwe kwiprosesa ye-6502 nayo eyayisetyenziswa ziikhompyutha ze-Apple. UFarmer, owayengazange enze inkqubo ngaphambili, wabhala ii-equations zebhola nezerothaizixhoboIrothaInxalenye ejikelezayo yevili ethwele izikhewu.Funda yonke → kuyo. Inguqulelo yekhasino yayinxitywa ibotshelelwe emzimbeni, phantsi kwengalo okanye, kwabasetyhini, kwi-bra. Umdlali osevilini wayecofa izitshixo ngoozinzwane abakhulu: uzwane olunye lwaluphawula iqandaiviliIqandaIsikhewu esinye esiluhlaza esingagubungelwa yibheji yemali elinganayo, yedazini okanye yekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kwakhona: iqanda elinye, 0.Funda yonke → kwaye emva koko ibhola ngalo lonke ixesha zidlula kwindawo emiselweyo, olunye lwaluhambisa inkqubo phakathi kwezicwangciso zayo. Ukulungelanisa inkqubo nevili elithile kwathatha malunga nemizuzu engamashumi amabini yokucofa ngokuthe cwaka. Emva koko, kwimizuzwana embalwa yomjikelo ngamnye, ikhompyutha yayibiza enye yamacandeloiviliIcandeloIsiqwenga esiqhubekayo sezikhewu evilini, esahlukileyo kwiqela elikwibhodi yokubheja.Funda yonke → asibhozo evili, okanye ibonise “akukho bheji”, ngokukhupha isandi seepluja ezincinci ezibetha ulusu. Umdlali wesibini ngaphaya etafileni, onxulunyaniswe ngesignali erhabaxa yerediyo, wayeva isandi esifanayo aze agubungele amanani amathathu okanye amane aloo candelo, ngamanye amaxesha etshintsha ngenani elisecaleni kwalo evilini ukuze ipateni ibe nzima ukuyifunda.
Uhambo lokuqala, ukuya eLake Tahoe naseReno ngoDisemba 1977, yayikukusilela kwezixhobo okude. Kwiiveki ezimbalwa kamva, kwi-Golden Gate kumbindi wesixeko saseLas Vegas, uFarmer wadlala yedwa iiyure ezine enesiqingatha ngeesenti ezilishumi itshiphuimaliItshiphuUphawu olumele isixa esimiselweyo, olubekwa kwibhodi yokubheja ukwenza ibheji. Kwakhona: check.Funda yonke → nganye. Inzuzo yayincinci, kodwa kwimijikelo engamakhulu aliqela yena noBrowne bayibeka inzuzo, ngononophelo, kwi-25%.
Ihlobo lowe-1978
Ngelo hlobo iqela ladlala ngokwamashifti iiveki, kumbindi wesixeko nakwi-Strip, iiseshoni ezimbini ngosuku kwaye ingaze ibe yikhasino enye ngobusuku obulandelelanayo. Babegcina incwadi yamanqaku kwikhasino nganye: amavili ayo nokuba angalinganiyo kangakanani, abasebenzi bayo, ukutshintsha kwamashifti ayo. Amavili aseLas Vegas afumaneka ethambekile ngokuncedisayo kwaye imidlalo yasebusuku kakhulu icotha, nto leyo eyayifunwa yikhompyutha, kuba irotha ecothayo nebhola ekhawulezayo zishiya ixesha elingakumbi lokulinganisa nokubheja. Kwabakho ubusuku obulungileyo. E-Circus Circus utshintsho lwe-croupierabantuCroupierUmqhubi kwitafile ye-roulette.Funda yonke → ngentsimbi yesibini ekuseni lwaguqula iseshoni yokulahlekelwa yaba ngamakhulu aliqela eedola ngeesenti ezingama-25 itshiphu nganye. Kwaye kwabakho uthotho oluzinzileyo lokusilela: iingcingo ezikhululekileyo, unxibelelwano lwerediyo olwaluguquka nobushushu, ukothuka ngumbane kwiingcingo ze-antenna ezithungelwe kwiihempe zabo. Ngobunye ubusuku iipluja zabambeka, iingcingo zatshisa kakhulu, kwaye uIngrid Hoermann waqhubeka edlala nangona etshiswa kunokuba ashiye itafile ephumelelayo. Abasebenzi bekhasino babona ukuphumelela kodwa abazange bayibone indlela; ngesinye isihlandlo i-croupier, icatshukiswa yingqokelela yeetshiphu ekhulayo, yabamba ivili elijikelezayo yalijija.
Kwiinyanga ezilishumi elinesithathu benza uhambo olusibhozo ukuya eNevada kwaye, bebheja ikakhulu ngeesenti ezilishumi nezingamashumi amabini anesihlanu, baphumelela amawaka ambalwa eedola. Iseshoni kwi-California Club ngoDisemba 1978 yazisa ngaphezu kwe-$1,000 ngeeyure ezintathu yaza yabaqinisekisa ukuba indlela ifanelwe zizixhobo ezingcono.
UPackard noBiles balinganisa ixesha leebhola ze-roulette ngesixhobo sokurekhoda eLas Vegas.
Ivili lekhasino lithengwa eReno; ihlobo lemilinganiselo; ikhompyutha yokuqala ye-kit.
Uhambo lokuqala lwekhasino, eLake Tahoe naseReno. Izixhobo ziyasilela.
I-Golden Gate, eLas Vegas: iiyure ezine enesiqingatha ngeebheji zeesenti ezilishumi, inzuzo ibekwe kwi-25%.
Iiveki zokudlala eLas Vegas nekhompyutha inxitywe emzimbeni.
I-California Club: ngaphezu kwe-$1,000 ngeeyure ezintathu.
Ikhompyutha yakhiwa ngokutsha ukuze ingene esihlangwini.
ILas Vegas: ingxolo yombane iyaginya unxibelelwano lwerediyo. Iprojekthi iyayeka.
I-Nevada ithintela izixhobo zokuqikelela. I-Eudaemonic Pie iyapapashwa.
Ikhompyutha esihlangwini, 1980–1981
Ukuze basuse iingcingo emizimbeni yabo bagqiba ekubeni bafake yonke into ezihlangwini. UMark Truitt, owayesandula ukuthweswa isidanga se-physics nowayephume kudliwano-ndlebe lomsebenzi weradar yasemkhosini, wachitha unyaka onesiqingatha kuyo. Ingcamango eyenza ukuba ingene yavela kwigcisa leyunivesithi: cima ikhompyutha phakathi kokuqikelela, kwaye ifuna iibhetri ezimbalwa kakhulu. UTruitt wabeka iitshiphu zekhompyutha kwiibhodi zesekethe ezimbini azizobe ngokwakhe, waguqula enye phezu kwenye waza wazalisa isithuba nge-wax eqinileyo, nto leyo eyenza ibhloko emalunga nee-intshi ezimbini ngezine nesiqingatha se-intshi ubukhulu enokunyathelwa. Iibhetri, i-antenna kunye nezibini kwizandi ezintathu zangena kwisithende. Izandi ezintathu ngezantya ezintathu zanika iisignali ezilithoba: amacandelo asibhozo kunye no-“akukho bheji”. Umenzi wezihlangu wazikroba izihlangu zesikhumba eziqhelekileyo engabuzi mibuzo.
NgoNovemba 1981 uFarmer nombhali uThomas Bass bathatha izihlangu ne-$2,500 baya eLas Vegas. Kwitafile yokuqala ukuqikelela kokuqala kwaphumelela, emva koko izandi zaqala ukukhala ngokungacwangciswanga. Iikhasino zizele yingxolo yombane, evela kwiikhamera zokujonga, kwimiqondiso ye-neon nakoomatshini be-slot, kwaye yaginya unxibelelwano lwerediyo olubuthathaka phakathi kwezihlangu; umabonwakude kwigumbi le-motel wenza into efanayo. Iintsuku zokulungisa ngabantu abane azizange zikunyange, kwaye iprojekthi yaphelela apho. Izixhobo zangena kwibhokisi enkulu kwigumbi elingaphantsi eSanta Cruz.
Ithetha ukuthini i-44%
Kwivili laseMelika ibheji yenani elinyeibhejiInani elinyeInani elinye, ihlawula u-35:1.Funda yonke → iphumelela kanye kwimijikelo engama-38 ngokomndilili kwaye ihlawula u-35 ku-1, nto leyo ebiza umdlali i-5.26%. Inzuzo ye-44% lixabiso lebheji efanayo xa iphumelela kanye kwimijikelo engama-25: iitshiphu ezingama-36 ziyabuya kwezingama-25 ngalinye ezibhejiweyo. Ngoko ikhompyutha yayingazange idinge ukwazi inani. Kwakufuneka yenze amanani eyawakhethayo aphume phantse kanye enesiqingatha rhoqo kunokuba ithamsanqa livumela.
Kutheni inzuzo enkulu yayisaziva njengokungcakaza
Inzuzo kwi-35 ku-1 ihlawula kancinci kwaye ngokungalinganiyo. Omnye wabacebisi beqela walumkisa ukuba umdlali obheja i-$100 kwinani ngalinye angalahlekelwa yi-$10,000 okanye i-$20,000 ngaphambi kokuba inzuzo ibonakale, kwaye izibalo ziyavuma: ngenzuzo ye-44% kumanani amanye umdlali usemva emva kwemijikelo eli-100 phantse kanye kwisine. Yiyo loo nto ii-Eudaemons zaqala ngeesenti ezilishumi zaza zakha imali yazo yokudlalaimaliImali yokudlalaIsixa esipheleleyo esibekelwe ukudlala. Ulawulo lwemali yokudlala kukugqiba ukuba ingakanani kuyo oyibeka emngciphekweni kwibheji nganye nakwiseshoni nganye.Funda yonke → ngemali eziyiphumeleleyo, kwaye yiyo loo nto uAlan Lewis, owajoyina ngo-1978, wachitha ixesha lakhe kwinto yokuba kubhejwe malini. UFarmer kamva wacinga ukuba babelumke kakhulu. Iibheji ezincinci zabagcina bekhuselekile, kwaye zathetha nokuba iminyaka yomsebenzi yazuza kancinci kakhulu.
Yabiza malini kwaye yahlawula malini
Malunga ne-$15,000 yangena kwiinxalenye, izixhobo kunye nomvuzo kaTruitt, uninzi lwayo luvela kuFarmer nakuLetty Belin, igqwetha elathi kamva latshata naye. UFarmer wabalelwa iiyure ezingama-3,500 zomsebenzi, uTruitt ezingama-3,000 noPackard ezingama-2,000. Ngokuchasene noko kumi amawaka ambalwa eedola aphunyelelwa ngeebheji ezincinci. Ngo-1983 uFarmer wabhengeza kwiphephancwadi lokungcakaza efuna abatyali-mali, echaza iprototype enenzuzo engqiniweyo yekhasino ye-20 ukuya kwi-40%. Xa ii-Eudaemons zazidlala, uphando lukaBelin lomthetho waseNevada lwalungafumananga nto ithintela ukuqikelela umdlalo; ngoMeyi 1985 ilizwe lakwenza kwaba lulwaphulo-mthetho ukusebenzisa isixhobo ngenxa yoko. Into eyahlalayo yayiyinzululwazi. Ukwakha iikhompyutha kwaqeqesha uFarmer, uPackard nabahlobo babo kufundo lwe-chaos, apho benza khona amagama abo.
Ukufunda incwadi namhlanje
UThomas Bass, owabeka iibheji kuhambo lokugqibela, walibalisa ibali kwi-The Eudaemonic Pie (1985), eyakhelwe kudliwano-ndlebe olude neqela, kwaye ingumthombo weli phepha. Imbali yayo emfutshane ye-roulette ayikhuselekanga kangako njengengxelo yayo yeprojekthi. Iphinda ibali labantu abathandathu abaqeshwe nguJagger, elibuyela kwincwadi yowe-1901 kwaye lingadluli apho (jonga uJoseph Jagger), kwaye ibeka uvavanyo lwekhasino lukaThorp noShannon ngo-1962, apho iingxelo zikaThorp ngokwakhe zithi lihlobo lowe-1961.
Imibuzo
Hayi. Baphumelela amawaka ambalwa eedola ngeebheji zeesenti ezilishumi nezingamashumi amabini anesihlanu, kwaye bachitha malunga ne-$15,000 namawaka amaninzi eeyure.
Xa babedlala, i-Nevada yayingenamthetho uchasene nokuqikelela umdlalo ngesixhobo. Ibe nawo ukususela ngo-1985, kwaye uninzi lweendawo ezineekhasino ngoku lunawo.
Hayi apho ukubheja kuvalwa xa ibhola iphoswa, njengoko kwenzeka kwizitudiyo ezibukhoma, kwaye ukuphatha isixhobo esinjalo ungena ekhasino lulwaphulo-mthetho kwiindawo ezininzi.
Ukonwaba ngezibalo
Qala uzizame ngokwakho. Isisombululo ngasinye sisongiwe; sivule xa ukulungele.
I-Eudaemons yayicinga ukuba ikhompyutha yayo ixabisa i-44% kwibheji yenani elinyeibhejiInani elinyeInani elinye, ihlawula u-35:1.Funda yonke → kwivili laseMelika, apho ibheji ihlawula u-35 ku-1. Inani elikhethiweyo kufuneka liphumelele kangaphi ukuze oko kube yinyani? Kwaye zingaphi kwizikhewuizixhoboIsikhewuEsinye sezikhewu ezingama-37 ezinamanani kwirotha. Kwakhona: slot, cup.Funda yonke → ezingama-38 uqikelelo ebelunokuzikhuphala, ukuba ibholaizixhoboIbholaIbhola encinci ephoswa emzileni ngokuchasene nerotha. Iibhola zanamhlanje zenziwe nge-ivorine okanye nge-Teflon, zi-18–21 mm.Funda yonke → ibinamathuba alinganayo okuwela kuyo nayiphi na kwezo zisele?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo Kanye kwimijikelo engama-25. Oko kuyafana nokukhupha izikhewu ezili-13 kushiye ezingama-25.
ItshiphuimaliItshiphuUphawu olumele isixa esimiselweyo, olubekwa kwibhodi yokubheja ukwenza ibheji. Kwakhona: check.Funda yonke → ephumeleleyo ibuya nezinye ezingama-35: iitshiphu ezingama-36. Ukuba inani liphumelela kanye kwimijikelo eli-n, iitshiphu ezili-n ezibhejiweyo zibuyisa ezingama-36, ngoko ibheji ixabisa u-36/n − 1.
Kumisela oko ku-0.44: 36/n = 1.44, ngoko n = 25. Ngaphandle koqikelelo u-n ngama-38 kwaye ibheji ixabisa u-36/38 − 1 = −5.26%.
Ngoku masithi uqikelelo lukhupha izikhewu ezili-k kwaye ibhola inamathuba alinganayo okuwela kwesinye nesinye kwezinye ezingama-38 − k. Itshiphu kwesinye sazo iphumelela kanye kwimijikelo engama-38 − k. Kwi-44% sifuna u-38 − k = 25, ngoko k = 13: ngaphezulu kancinci kwesinye kwisithathu sevili.
Kwincwadi u-Farmer ucatshulwa esithi i-40% ivela ekukhupheni izikhewu ezisibhozo. Kule modeli ilula ezisibhozo zinika u-36/30 − 1 = 20%, ngoko umfanekiso wokwenyani kufuneka wawungalinganiyo: ezinye zezikhewu ezisele zinamathuba amakhulu kakhulu kunezinye.
izikhewu ezikhutshiweyoizikhewu eziseleibheji yenani elinye ixabisa038−5.26%2360%830+20%1325+44%1919+89%Masithi inani lakho liphumelela ngokwenene kanye kwimijikelo engama-25 ngo-35 ku-1, inzuzo ye-44%. Ubheja itshiphu enye ngomjikelo. Kunokwenzeka kangakanani ukuba usemva emva kwemijikelo eli-100? Emva kwama-500?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo Malunga ne-23% emva kwemijikelo eli-100 kwaye isemalunga ne-6% emva kwama-500.
Emva kwemijikelo eli-100 ubheje iitshiphu ezili-100, kwaye impumelelo nganye ibuyisa ezingama-36. Iimpumelelo ezimbini zibuyisa ezingama-72, ilahleko yezingama-28; ezintathu zibuyisa eziyi-108, inzuzo yezisi-8. Ngoko usemva ukuba uphumelela kabini okanye ngaphantsi.
Ithuba lokungabikho mpumelelo kwimijikelo eli-100 ngu-(24/25)¹⁰⁰ = 1.7%. Impumelelo enye ngqo: 100 × (1/25) × (24/25)⁹⁹ = 7.0%. Ezimbini ngqo: 4,950 × (1/25)² × (24/25)⁹⁸ = 14.5%. Zizonke 23.2%.
Emva kwemijikelo engama-500 ufuna iimpumelelo ezili-14 ukuze ube phambili (14 × 36 = 504), kwaye umndilili ngama-20. Ithuba le-13 okanye ngaphantsi limalunga ne-6.2%.
Le licala lenye lebheji enee-odds ezinde. Inzuzo inkulu, kwaye malunga nothotho olunye lwemijikelo eli-100 kwezine ayibonakali. Umdlali ongazi ngokuqinisekileyo ukuba inzuzo ikhona akanakwahlula uthotho olubi kwikhompyutha eyaphukileyo, nto leyo eyayiyimeko i-Eudaemons ehlala ikuyo.
imijikeloiimpumelelo ezifunekayo ukuze ube phambiliithuba lokuba semva50240.1%100323.2%200618.6%500146.2%Incwadi ithi ngenzuzo ye-44%, i-$100 ebhejwe izihlandlo ezingama-50 ngeyure ifanele izuze i-$2,200 ngeyure. Yihlole. Emva koko bala oko inzuzo efanayo yakuzuzayo kwiibheji iqela elalidlala ngazo ngokwenene: iisenti ezilishumi ngomjikelo.
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo I-$2,200 ichanile kwi-$100 ngomjikelo. Kwiisenti ezilishumi ngomjikelo yi-$2.20 ngeyure.
Inzuzo sisabelo sayo yonke into ebhejiweyo. Kwi-$100 ngomjikelo nemijikelo engama-50 ngeyure, kubhejwa i-$5,000, kwaye i-44% yayo yi-$2,200.
Kwiisenti ezili-10 ngomjikelo, kubhejwa i-$5 ngeyure, kwaye i-44% ye-$5 yi-$2.20. Nokuba kugutyungelwa amanani amane ngeesenti ezilishumi nganye, yi-$8.80 ngeyure yabantu ababini.
Iqela lalidlala ngeebheji eziphantsi kuba lalakha imali yokudlalaimaliImali yokudlalaIsixa esipheleleyo esibekelwe ukudlala. Ulawulo lwemali yokudlala kukugqiba ukuba ingakanani kuyo oyibeka emngciphekweni kwibheji nganye nakwiseshoni nganye.Funda yonke → lingenanto kwaye kuba, njengoko iphazili engentla ibonisa, inzuzo ye-44% ngo-35 ku-1 inokulahlekelwa iiyure. Ixabiso laloo lumkiso yayikukuba indlela yayinokusebenza ngokugqibeleleyo kodwa ihlawule ngaphantsi komsebenzi.
Uncumo
I-physics yasebenza. I-neon yaphumelela.
Imithombo
- Bass, T. A. The Eudaemonic Pie.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”
- Thorp, E. O. “The invention of the first wearable computer.”
- Nevada Revised Statutes, chapter 465.