Ilebhu ye-roulette · Ilebhu · Izibalo-manani · imizuzu eyi-7

Ubungakanani besampulu

Mingaphi imijikelo efunekayo ngaphambi kokuba ipateni ibe nentsingiselo.

Impendulo emfutshane

Ukufumanisa ngokuqiniseka okwaneleyo isikhewu esiphuma ka-1 kwi-30 endaweni ye-1 kwi-37 kufuna malunga nemijikelo eli-4,400. Isikhewu esiphuma ka-1 kwi-35, uhlobo olunokwenene luhlawule, sifuna malunga nemijikelo engama-70,000.

1 kwi-25
~imijikelo eli-1,100
1 kwi-30
~imijikelo eli-4,400
1 kwi-35
~imijikelo engama-70,000
ingxolo
∝ 1/√n

Kutheni imininzi kangaka

Uphawu, ukuphuma okumbalwa okongezelelweyo kwimijikelo eliwaka ngalinye, luncinci xa luthelekiswa nengxolo ye-binomial engu-√(n·p·(1−p)) ≈ √(n/37). Ingxolo yehla njengo-1/√n, ngoko ukunciphisa ukungaqiniseki ngesiqingatha kubiza imijikelo ephindwe kane. IsikhewuizixhoboIsikhewuEsinye sezikhewu ezingama-37 ezinamanani kwirotha. Kwakhona: slot, cup.Funda yonke → esiku-1/30 siphuma ka-33 kwiwaka xa kulindeleke ama-27: ukuphuma okuthandathu okongezelelweyo, ukutenxa okuqhelekileyo (standard deviation)izibaloUkutenxa okuqhelekileyo (standard deviation)Ingcambu yesikwere yokwahluka; umgama oqhelekileyo wesiphumo ukusuka kwixabiso elilindelekileyo.Funda yonke → kumalunga nesihlanu. Isampulu enye yewaka ayinakuzahlula ngokuthembekileyo ezi meko zimbini.

Imijikelo efunekayo ukufumanisa isikhewu esithambekileyo (amandla angama-80%, i-5% kwicala elinye)imijikelo
1 kwi-20
≈ 500
1 kwi-25
≈ 1,100
1 kwi-30
≈ 4,400
1 kwi-33
≈ 10,000
1 kwi-35
≈ 70,000
imijikelo
035000≈ 70,000
Ukuthambekela okunokuhlawula (1/35 okanye ngcono) kufuna amashumi amawaka emijikelo. Okunokubonwa kwimijikelo eliwaka kukukhulu kakhulu kwaye bekungayi kusinda kulungiso lwevili.

Ifomula

Kuvavanyo lwecala elinye lwesikhewu esinye kwinqanaba le-5% ngamandla angama-80%, i-n efunekayo imalunga no-((1.645·√(p₀(1−p₀)) + 0.84·√(p₁(1−p₁))) / (p₁ − p₀))², apho p₀ = 1/37 kwaye p₁ lizinga elirhanelwayo. Oku kusebenza kwisikhewu esinye esikhethwe kwangaphambili. Ukuba ukhangela kuzo zonke izikhewu ezingama-37 eyona ishushu, phinda-phinda ngokumalunga kabini ukuya kathathu ukuze izinga leziphumo ezingezizo ezilungileyo lihlale linyanisekile.

Ukufunda ngokwenyani

Inani elishushuintsomiInani elishushuInani eliphume kaninzi kunokulindelekileyo kutshanje. Kwivili elinobulungisa alixeli nto.Funda yonke → emva kwemijikelo engama-300 yingxolo. Emva kwe-3,000 sisizathu sokuqokelela ezinye i-3,000 kwivili elinye. Emva kwe-30,000 lisenokuba livili elifanele ukulinganiswa ngokwasemzimbeni. Lonke uxhaphazo lokuthambekela olubhaliweyo embalini lwakhiwa phezu kwamashumi amawaka emijikelo ebhaliweyo, kwaye nganye kuzo yathatha iinyanga.

imijikelo ebhaliweyointo onokuyithetha ngokunyaniseka
< 500akukho nto malunga nasiphi na isikhewu
1,000uvavanyo lwe-chi-square lungenziwa; lufumanisa iziphene ezinkulu kuphela
5,000isikhewu se-1/30 sinokubonakala; esi-1/35 asinakubonakala
20,000isikhewu se-1/33 siyabonakala ngokucacileyo; amacandelo angenziwa imephu
70,000+isikhewu se-1/35 esinenzuzo singaqinisekiswa
naliphi na inani, idibeneyo kumavili ahlukeneyoakukho nto; uvavanya umxube

Iindleko zedatha

Ngemijikelo engama-50 ngeyure, imijikelo eli-10,000 ziiyure ezingama-200 zokubhala, okanye iiveki eziliqela zokukhuphela iimbali ezipapashiweyo, ukusuka kwi-ntloko yeviliizixhoboIntloko yeviliIgama elifanayo nerotha: inxalenye ejikelezayo ethwele amanani.Funda yonke → enye eyaziwayo ekhasino engakhange iyijikelezise okanye itshintshe izahluli zayo okwangoku. Le yinto, hayi izibalo-manani, ebangele ukuba ukudlala ngokuthambekela kufe: umjikelo wolungiso mfutshane kunomjikelo wokuqokelela idatha.

Ukufunda iimbali zemijikelo ezipapashiweyo

Ubungakanani besampulu benzuzo ngokwayo

Izibalo ezifanayo zithi kuthatha ixesha elingakanani ukuze umdlali abone inzuzo yekhasinoizibaloInzuzo yekhasinoIsabelo sebheji nganye esigcinwa yikhasino ngokomndilili: 2.70% kwi-roulette yaseYurophu.Funda yonke → kwiziphumo zakhe: malunga nemijikelo eli-1,400 yemali elinganayo kwi-sigma enye, eli-10,000 ukuze inzuzo ingathandabuzeki. Nabani na othi inkqubo isebenza kwimijikelo embalwa kunaleyo uxela ingxolo.

Ifomula

n ≈ ((1.645·√(p₀(1−p₀)) + 0.84·√(p₁(1−p₁))) / (p₁ − p₀))²
σ(inani) = √(n·p·(1−p))

Imibuzo

Ingaba ikhona indlela emfutshane?

Ukuvavanya amacandeloiviliIcandeloIsiqwenga esiqhubekayo sezikhewu evilini, esahlukileyo kwiqela elikwibhodi yokubheja.Funda yonke → endaweni yezikhewu kuyanceda, kuba isiphene somzimba sihlala sichaphazela isiqwenga sevili, kwaye uphawu luyadibana kwizikhewu ezininzi. Oko akukutshintshi ubukhulu benani lemijikelo efunekayo.

Ndingayidibanisa na idatha yevili elinye ngeentsuku ezahlukeneyo?

Ewe, ukuba intloko yevili iyafana kwaye ayikhange ilungiswe. Leyo yinto enzima ukuyazi.

Kutheni amandla angama-80%?

Sisithethe. Kuthetha ukuba ukuthambekela kokwenyani kobungakanani obuchaziweyo bekuya kufunyaniswa kane kwisihlanu.

Uncumo

Ingxolo yehla njengo-1/√n. Umonde wehla ngokukhawuleza ngakumbi.

Ingxolo yehla njengo-1/√n. Umonde wehla ngokukhawuleza ngakumbi.

Imithombo

  1. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, uhlelo lwesi-3, 1968. Ukuphelelwa yimali komngcakazi (gambler’s ruin), isahluko XIV.
  2. Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel. Lyle Stuart, 1983.
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ihlolwe ngo-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, iqanda elinyeindlela yokusebenza ↗imithombo ↗