Isicwangciso se-D'Alembert kwi-roulette
Isicwangciso se-D’Alembert kwi-roulette songeza iyunithi enye emva kwelahleko size sisuse enye emva kokuphumelela.
Asiloyisi ivili. Sesona kunyuswa kweebhejiisicwangcisoUkunyuswa kweebhejiNawuphi na umthetho otshintsha ibheji ngokweziphumo zangaphambili. Ukunyuswa okubi kuyinyusa emva kwelahleko, okuhle emva kokuphumelela.Funda yonke → kuqhelekileyo kuthe tyaba: izixa zeebheji zinyuka kancinci, ukuhla kwemali kuphakathi, kwaye inzuzo yekhasino ayichukumiseki.
Hamba ngenkqubo
Ilahleko inyusa inyathelo elinye. Ukuphumelela kubuyisela umva inyathelo elinye.
Iibheji neziphumo zikwiiyunithi zebheji yesiseko.
Inkqubo ye-D’Alembert kwi-roulette, inyathelo ngenyathelo
Bheja iyunithiimaliIyunithiIbheji esisiseko esetyenziswa yinkqubo okanye ngumdlali. Ukunyuswa kweebheji kuchazwa ngeeyunithi ukuze kusebenze kuyo nayiphi na itafile.Funda yonke → enye. Ulahlekelwe, ibheji elandelayo inkulu ngeyunithi enye. Uphumelele, incinci ngeyunithi enye, ingaze yehle ngaphantsi kwenye. Kuphelele apho. Cinga ngesinyikinyiki: ilahleko nganye inyusa isixa sebheji ngenqanaba elinye kwaye ukuphumelela ngakunye kusibuyisela ezantsi. Inkolelo engaphantsi kwayo kukuba ukuphumelela neelahleko kuya kulingana, ngoko isixa sebheji siya kubuyela ekhaya kwisiseko. Umtsalane kukuba yonke into enokuphumelela okukodwa nelahleko enye kwizixa zeebheji ezingabamelwane inika +1 iyunithi: ulahlekelwe ngezi-3, uphumelele ngezi-4, isiphumo +1.
Ijongeka njani iseshoni?
Ithambile, isixa sebheji sinyuka kancinci-kancinci. Ekubeni iilahleko zingaphezulu kokuphumelela ngo-19 ku-18 kwimali elinganayo, isixa sebheji siyanyuka kwiseshoni ende. Ngenxa yokuba isixa sebheji siphezulu xa ubusoloko ulahlekelwa, kwaye siphantsi xa uphumelela, umndilili wesixa sebheji ngamaxesha okulahlekelwa ungaphezulu komndilili ngamaxesha okuphumelela. Iiseshoni zithambile kune-MartingaleisicwangcisoMartingaleUkunyuswa kweebheji okuphindaphinda ibheji emva kokulahlekelwa ngakunye. Bona icandelo lezicwangciso ukuze wazi oko ikwenzayo nengakwenziyo.Funda yonke →, nokuhla kwemaliimaliUkuhla kwemaliUkuwa ukusuka kwincopho yemali yokudlala ukuya kwelona nqanaba liphantsi kamva kwiseshoni. Ukuhla okukhulu kwemali lolona kuwa lukhulu olunjalo.Funda yonke → okuphakathi kwaye akukho liwa, kwaye zilahlekelwa kancinci ngaphezulu kokubheja ngokulinganayoisicwangcisoUkubheja ngokulinganayoUkubheja isixa esifanayo kuwo wonke umjikelo. Isiseko apho konke ukunyuswa kweebheji kuthelekiswa khona.Funda yonke → ngokomndilili kuba umndilili wesixa sebheji uphezulu.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- umbindi −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 −$500
Ingaba inkqubo ye-D’Alembert iyasebenza?
Hayi. Iseshoni elinganayo iyaphumelela, kodwa iiseshoni azihlali zilingana. Emva kokuphumelela okungu-w neelahleko ezingu-l kwizixa zeebheji ezingabamelwane isiphumo sokwenyani ziiyunithi ezingu-w − l kongeza ulungiso oluxhomekeke kwindawo obukuyo kwileli. Ukuba w = l isiphumo ziiyunithi ezingu-+w kanye, nto leyo ebonakala ngathi yinzuzo eqinisekisiweyo. Ingxaki kukuba w = l ayiyomeko ilindelekileyo: kwimijikelo engama-37 ulindela ukuphumelela kali-18 neelahleko ezili-19. Ilahleko enye eyongezelelweyo kwisixa sebheji esinyuke saya, masithi, kwiiyunithi ezi-8 ibiza ngaphezu kwezibini ezisibhozo ze-+1 eziveliswe. Okulindelekileyo kuphuma ku-−1/37 wesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyoimaliIsixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyoIsixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo kwiseshoni okanye kwixesha elithile, kubalwa nemali ephumeleleyo ephinda ibhejwe. Kwakhona: handle, action.Funda yonke →, njengoko kufanele.
Kutheni iiseshoni ezimfutshane zihlala ziphumelela?
Imeko elinganayo yinxalenye yomthetho omnye ogubungela yonke iseshoni. Masibize u-D inani leelahleko thabatha inani lokuphumelela. Iseshoni yemijikelo engu-N eqala ngeyunithi enye igqiba ngeeyunithi ezingu-(N − D²)/2 − D, xa nje kungekho bheji yeyunithi enye ephumelelayo (emva kokuphumelela okunjalo isixa sebheji asinandawo iphantsi yokuya kuyo). Xa D = 0 oko ngu-+N/2, i-+w yecandelo elingentla. Ilahleko nganye eyongezelelweyo ibalwa iphindwe ngokwayo: emva kwemijikelo eli-100 u-D ongu-4 usashiya iiyunithi ezingu-+38, u-D ongu-8 ushiya +10, kwaye u-D ongu-10 ushiya −10. Ithamsanqa lodwa lisasaza u-D malunga no-√N, ishumi emva kwemijikelo eli-100, kwaye kumdlalo ongenalo iqandaiviliIqandaIsikhewu esinye esiluhlaza esingagubungelwa yibheji yemali elinganayo, yedazini okanye yekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kwakhona: iqanda elinye, 0.Funda yonke → iinzuzo zeeseshoni ezininzi ezilinganayo neelahleko zezimbalwa ezingalinganiyo ziyacimana ncam. Iqanda longeza ilahleko enye eyongezelelweyo kwimijikelo engama-37 ngokomndilili, kwaye ngenxa yokuba u-D uphindwa ngokwakhe iindleko zalo zikhula ngokukhawuleza kuneseshoni. Uninzi lweeseshoni ezifikelela kwimijikelo eli-100 zigqiba ziphambili; umndilili awusoze, kwaye emva kwamakhulu ambalwa emijikelo uninzi lweeseshoni nalo luyalahlekelwa.
Kuthekani ukuba uyiguqula?
I-Contra-D’Alembert, ekwabizwa ngokuba yi-D’Alembert ebuyela umva, yongeza iyunithi emva kokuphumelela ize isuse enye emva kwelahleko. Ingumfanekiso osesipilini weyokuqala ncam. Xa nje kungekho bheji yeyunithi enye elahlekayo, iseshoni yemijikelo engu-N igqiba ngeeyunithi ezingu-(D² − N)/2 + D, apho u-D ngoku kukuphumelela thabatha iilahleko. Iseshoni elinganayo ilahlekelwa sisiqingatha seyunithi ngomjikelo, kwaye luluhlu lokuphumelela olungaphambili kakhulu kweelahleko kuphela oluzisa inzuzo. Ngoko uninzi lweeseshoni zilahlekelwa kancinci kwaye ezimbalwa ziphumelela kakhulu, eyona mo ichaseneyo neyeyokuqala, kwaye umndilili yi-2.70% efanayo yemali ebhejiweyo.
Wayengubani u-d’Alembert?
UJean le Rond d’Alembert, isazi sezibalo nomhleli-ndawonye we-Encyclopédie, waxoxa kwinqaku lowe-1754 ukuba emva koluhlu lweentloko, imisila iba namathuba amakhulu. Wayephazama, kwaye impazamo ebizwa ngegama lakhe luhlobo lwempazamo yomngcakazi. Inkqubo ye-D’Alembert kwi-roulette yathiywa ngegama lakhe kamva, ngabangcakazi ababenale nkolelo. Akazange ayiyile kwaye mhlawumbi ngewayengayixhasanga.
Ingaba zikho ezinye iinguqulelo?
I-Contra-D’Alembert, engentla, iziphatha njenge-ParoliisicwangcisoParoliUkunyuswa kweebheji okuhle: phindaphinda emva kokuphumelela, uqale kwakhona emva kokulahlekelwa okanye emva kokuphumelela kathathu ngokulandelelana. Kwakhona: i-Martingale ebuyela umva.Funda yonke → ethambileyo. Abanye abadlali bongeza iiyunithi ezimbini emva kwelahleko baze bathabathe enye emva kokuphumelela, nto leyo eyenza ileli ibe nqengqelezi ngakumbi isiya kummandla we-Martingale. Zonke iinguqulelo zinayo ilahleko elindelekileyoizibaloIlahleko elindelekileyoIxabiso elilindelekileyo liphindwe ngesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo; isixa esiphakathi esilahlekayo kwiseshoni okanye kwixesha elithile.Funda yonke → efanayo ngeyunithi ebhejiweyo.
Isicwangciso se-Paroli kwi-roulette (i-Martingale ebuyela umva)
Isilinganisi · D'Alembert
Iiseshoni ezi-2,000 zeebheji zemali elinganayo ukusuka kwimali yokudlala ye-$1,000.
Ibheji yesiseko $10 · umda wetafile $500 · imijikelo eyi-100 ngeseshoni
Uthotho lokulahlekelwa luza kangaphi
Ibheji yemali elinganayo kwivili elineqanda elinye ilahlekelwa kwimijikelo eli-19 kwengama-37. Umqolo ngamnye ngamathuba okuba uthotho olunikiweyo lwemijikelo lulahleke lonke, kunye noko umdlali we-D’Alembert, owongeza ibheji yesiseko enye emva kwelahleko nganye, akulahlileyo ngelo xesha.
| ilahleko ngokulandelelana | amathuba | malunga ne-1 kwi | esele kulahlekile | ibheji elandelayo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $3 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $6 | $4 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $10 | $5 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $15 | $6 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $21 | $7 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $28 | $8 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $36 | $9 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $45 | $10 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $55 | $11 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $66 | $12 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $78 | $13 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $91 | $14 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $105 | $15 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $120 | $16 |
Amathuba ngu-19/37 ophindaphindwe ngokwawo kanye kwilahleko nganye, kubalwa ukusuka kumjikelo omnye onikiweyo. Iseshoni ende inemijikelo emininzi apho uthotho olunjalo lunokuqala khona, ngoko ngokuhlwa kunokwenzeka ngakumbi kunoko umqolo omnye ubonisa.
Imibuzo
Ayinaliwa, nto leyo eyenza ibe kokona kunyuswa kweebheji okubi kuthambileyo. Ayibizi kancinci kunokubheja ngokulinganayo; ibiza kancinci ngaphezulu.
Kuphela ngumda wetafileitafileUmda wetafileIbheji encinci nenkulu evumelekileyo. Ubuninzi yinto emisa ukunyuswa kweebheji okuphindaphindayo.Funda yonke → okanye yimali yakho yokudlalaimaliImali yokudlalaIsixa esipheleleyo esibekelwe ukudlala. Ulawulo lwemali yokudlala kukugqiba ukuba ingakanani kuyo oyibeka emngciphekweni kwibheji nganye nakwiseshoni nganye.Funda yonke →. Kwiseshoni ende yokulahlekelwa sinyuka ngokuqhubekayo.
Ukonwaba ngezibalo
Qala uzizame ngokwakho. Isisombululo ngasinye sisongiwe; sivule xa ukulungele.
Udlala i-D’Alembert kobomvuibhejiObomvuIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 abomvu. NgesiFrentshi: rouge.Funda yonke → kwimijikelo engama-50, uqala ngeyunithiimaliIyunithiIbheji esisiseko esetyenziswa yinkqubo okanye ngumdlali. Ukunyuswa kweebheji kuchazwa ngeeyunithi ukuze kusebenze kuyo nayiphi na itafile.Funda yonke → enye, kwaye awuze uphumelele ibheji yeyunithi enye (emva kwempumelelo enjalo ibheji ibingayi kuba nandawo iphantsi yokuya kuyo). Ugqiba ngelahleko ezingama-27 kunye neempumelelo ezingama-23. Uphambili okanye usemva ngeeyunithi ezingaphi? Kwaye ngelahleko ezingama-29 neempumelelo ezingama-21?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo +13 iiyunithi ngelahleko ezingama-27, −15 iiyunithi ngezingama-29. Imijikelo emibini kwengamashumi amahlanu ehamba ngenye indlela ibiza iiyunithi ezingama-28.
Biza u-D ilahleko thabatha iimpumelelo. Isiphumo ngu-(N − D²)/2 − D kwimijikelo eli-N. Ngelahleko ezingama-27 neempumelelo ezingama-23, D = 4: (50 − 16)/2 − 4 = 17 − 4 = +13. Ngezingama-29 nezingama-21, D = 8: (50 − 64)/2 − 8 = −7 − 8 = −15.
Kutheni umthetho usebenza: ibheji ihlala iyiyunithi enye kunye nelahleko ukuza kuthi ga ngoku thabatha iimpumelelo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Ilahleko nganye ecinywa yimpumelelo yamva yenza isibini, lahlekelwa ngu-s uze uphumelele u-s + 1, enika inzuzo eyi-+1 yunithi, njengoko itheyibhile engentla ibonisa. Kwimijikelo eli-N, kwenziwa izibini ezingama-(N − D)/2, ezixabisa +(N − D)/2. Ilahleko ezili-D ezishiyekileyo zabekwa kwiibheji eziyi-1, 2 … D xa kunyukwa kwaye azizange zicinywe; zibiza u-1 + 2 + … + D = D(D + 1)/2. Kunye: (N − D)/2 − D(D + 1)/2 = (N − D²)/2 − D.
Isikwere siyilo lonke ibali. Iseshoni elinganayo ihlawula isiqingatha seyunithi ngomjikelo, kwaye lonke inyathelo elisuka ekulinganeni libiza ngaphezu kwelo langaphambili.
Udlala i-D’Alembert eguqulweyo kobomvu kwimijikelo eli-100, uqala ngeyunithi enye, kwaye akukho bheji yeyunithi enye ilahlekayo. Ugqiba ngeempumelelo ezingama-52 nelahleko ezingama-48. Ume phi? Kwaye ngeempumelelo ezingama-60 nelahleko ezingama-40?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo −38 iiyunithi ngeempumelelo ezingama-52, +170 ngezingama-60. Ukuba phambili kancinci ngeempumelelo kusalahlekelwa; kuphela kokuba phambili kakhulu okuhlawulayo.
Biza u-D iimpumelelo thabatha ilahleko. Isiphumo ngu-(D² − N)/2 + D kwimijikelo eli-N.
Iimpumelelo ezingama-52 nelahleko ezingama-48: D = 4, ngoko (16 − 100)/2 + 4 = −42 + 4 = −38.
Iimpumelelo ezingama-60 nelahleko ezingama-40: D = 20, ngoko (400 − 100)/2 + 20 = 150 + 20 = +170.
Kutheni: impumelelo nganye ecinywa yilahleko yamva yenza isibini, phumelela ku-s uze ulahlekelwe ku-s + 1, enika −1. Iimpumelelo ezili-D ezishiyekileyo zabekwa kwiibheji eziyi-1, 2 … D xa kunyukwa kwaye azize zicinywe; zingenisa u-D(D + 1)/2. Kwimijikelo eli-N, kwenziwa izibini ezingama-(N − D)/2, ngoko isixa siphela ngu-D(D + 1)/2 − (N − D)/2 = (D² − N)/2 + D.
Ngumthetho we-D’Alembert yokuqala kodwa iimpawu zijikiwe: apho, ukulingana kuzuza isiqingatha seyunithi ngomjikelo kwaye ukungalingani kuyohlwaywa; apha, ukulingana kubiza isiqingatha seyunithi ngomjikelo kwaye ukungalingani kuyavuzwa.
Uncumo
Ithiywe ngegama lesazi sezibalo esaphazama ngengqekembe.
Imithombo
- RouletteDoc. Strategy description and examples.
- Roulette77. Strategy description and examples.
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.