Imizekelo inyathelo ngenyathelo · Umzekelo inyathelo ngenyathelo · imizuzu eyi-8

Umzekelo: ingokuhlwa ye-$100 kumbala obomvu

Ikhulu leedola, iitshiphu zeedola ezintlanu, obomvu kumjikelo ngamnye, nomthetho wokumisa. Umjikelo ngomjikelo.

Impendulo emfutshane

Ingokuhlwa elinganisiweyo etafileni ebukhoma: ukuya kwimijikelo engama-60 ye-$5 kobomvu ukusuka kuhlahlo-lwabiwo-mali lwe-$100, ngomda welahleko we-$50 nomda wenzuzo we-$50. Umda welahleko wayiphelisa kumjikelo wama-36. Iseshoni ibonisa ukuba ukwahluka kukhangeleka njani ngexesha lokwenyani nokuba kutheni umthetho wokumisa ibisisigqibo ekuphela kwaso esibalulekileyo.

uhlahlo-lwabiwo-mali
$100
ibheji
i-$5 kobomvu
imithetho yokumisa
−$50 / +$50
ilahleko elindelekileyo
i-$8.11 kwimijikelo engama-60

Isicwangciso

Ingaba sikhona esona sicwangciso silungileyo se-roulette nge-$100? Akukho siphantsisa iindleko eziphakathi. Olo hlahlo-lwabiwo-mali yimali esinokuyilahla; esikukhethayo bubukhulu bebheji nemithetho yokumisa. Ibheji yi-$5, i-5% yohlahlo-lwabiwo-mali, nto leyo isinika iibheji ezilahlekayo ezimalunga namashumi amabini esandleni. Umda welahlekoisicwangcisoUmda welahlekoIsixa selahleko esimiselwe kwangaphambili apho uyeka khona iseshoni.Funda yonke → ku-−$50 nomda wenzuzoisicwangcisoUmda wenzuzoInjongo yenzuzo emiselwe kwangaphambili apho uyeka khona iseshoni.Funda yonke → ku-+$50, kugqitywe ngoku. Ilahleko elindelekileyoizibaloIlahleko elindelekileyoIxabiso elilindelekileyo liphindwe ngesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo; isixa esiphakathi esilahlekayo kwiseshoni okanye kwixesha elithile.Funda yonke → kwimijikelo engama-60 ngu-60 × $5 / 37 = $8.11. Silindele ukuhamba nemalunga ne-$92 kwaye sibe naphi na phakathi kwe-$20 ne-$170 ngamathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lesiphumo, ukusuka ku-0 ukuya ku-1 okanye ku-0% ukuya ku-100%. Inani elinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda yonke → afanelekileyo.

Imijikelo 1–20

R B B R R 0 B R R B R B B B R R B R B R. Alishumi abomvuibhejiObomvuIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 abomvu. NgesiFrentshi: rouge.Funda yonke →, alithoba amnyamaibhejiOmnyamaIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 amnyama. NgesiFrentshi: noir.Funda yonke →, iqandaiviliIqandaIsikhewu esinye esiluhlaza esingagubungelwa yibheji yemali elinganayo, yedazini okanye yekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kwakhona: iqanda elinye, 0.Funda yonke → elinye: +$50 − $45 − $5 = $0. Ibhalansi yi-$100. Iqanda kumjikelo wesi-6 libize itshiphuimaliItshiphuUphawu olumele isixa esimiselweyo, olubekwa kwibhodi yokubheja ukwenza ibheji. Kwakhona: check.Funda yonke → kwaye, kwi-1/37, belifike kwangoko kancinci. Akukho nto ingaqhelekanga apha. Silingana emva kwemijikelo engamashumi amabini.

umjikeloisiphumo (R = obomvu, B = omnyama)isiphumo sebhejiibhalansi
1obomvu+$5$105
2–3omnyama, omnyama−$10$95
4–5obomvu, obomvu+$10$105
6iqanda−$5$100
7omnyama−$5$95
8–9obomvu, obomvu+$10$105
10–14B R B B B−$15$90
15–16obomvu, obomvu+$10$100
17–20B R B R$0$100
Ulandelelwano olulinganisiweyo kwivili elinobulungisa. Olwakho luya kwahluka kuzo zonke iinkcukacha kodwa hayi kumanani.

Imijikelo 21–36

B B B B B R B B R B B R B B B B. Amnyama amahlanu ekuqaleni, alishumi elinesithathu ewonke: abomvu amathathu, amnyama alishumi elinesithathu, +$15 − $65 = −$50. Ibhalansi yi-$50. Eli lixesha elenza abantu batshintshe ibheji yabo, baphindaphinde okanye batshintshe imibala. Amathuba amnyama ali-13 nangaphezulu kwimijikelo eli-16 angaphantsi kwe-1%; bekuza kwenzeka komnye umntu ngobu busuku. Sihle nge-$50 ukusuka ekuqaleni, umda welahleko uyasebenza kumjikelo wama-36, kwaye siyasuka.

Amnyama alishumi elinesithathu kwimijikelo elishumi elinesithandathu, kwaye umda welahleko ufikelelwa kumjikelo wama-36.

Imijikelo 37–60, singekho

R B R B, emva koko R R B R 0 R B R R B R R B B R R B R B R. Abomvu alishumi elinesine, amnyama alithoba, iqanda elinye: ukuba besihleli, +$70 − $45 − $5 = +$20 nebhalansi ye-$70 kumjikelo wama-60. Imijikelo engamashumi amathathu anesithandathu etafileni ebukhoma imalunga nemizuzu engama-45. Sihambe ne-$50, sihle nge-$50, xa kulindelwe −$4.86 kwimijikelo engama-36. Abomvu alishumi elinesithathu, amnyama angamashumi amabini anesibini, iqanda elinye.

Ingokuhlwa, nezinye ezilishumi elinanye ebezinokwenzekaisiphumo xa kuthelekiswa nokuqala
+$190$0−$100+$80−$500125250375500imijikeloisiphumo
iiseshoni ezi-1,000 × imijikelo eyi-500 · mfusa p10/p25/p75/p90, luhlaza okwesibhakabhaka okukhanyayo umbindi, iisampulu ezi-82 ezifiphele · hambisa isalathisi phezu kwegrafu ukuze ubone ii-quantile kumjikelo
  • p10 −$100
  • p25 −$100
  • umbindi −$100
  • p75 +$0
  • p90 +$70
iiseshoni ezi-1,000 × imijikelo eyi-500 · i-y-axis inqunyulwe kwi-1st–99th percentile (iziphelo −$100 ukuya ku-+$300) · imijikelo eyi-500 · isiseko $5 · imali elinganayo
Enye yazo imalunga nengokuhlwa yethu. Ezinye sisicwangciso esinye ngobunye ubusuku. Umda welahleko we-$50 ngewuziphelise kwangoko ezimbini zazo; umda wenzuzo we-$50 ngewuyiphelise enye.

Kwenzeke ntoni

Sihlawule malunga ne-$5 ngemizuzu engama-45 ye-roulette, kunye ne-$45 yelishwa. Abomvu alishumi elinesithathu kwimijikelo engama-36 bangaphantsi kakhulu kwe-17.5 elindelekileyo, kwaye abomvu abasithoba ngaphantsi kwabamnyama yi-−$45 ngaphambi kweqanda. Ingokuhlwa igqitywe kukwahlukaizibaloUkwahlukaUmlinganiselo wokuba iziphumo zisasazeke kangakanani zijikeleze ixabiso elilindelekileyo. Kuphezulu kwibheji yenani elinye, kuphantsi kwiibheji zemali elinganayo.Funda yonke →; ixabiso ligqitywe yibheji nemijikelo; umda welahleko ugqibe ukuba iphela nini. Ukuhlala ngekubuyise i-$20 kumjikelo wama-60, kwaye eso asisizathu sokuhlala: ukubuyela nako kwakukukwahluka, kwanjalo nothotho lwabamnyama olwafika ngaphambi kwako.

Esingakwenzanga

Ukutshintsha ibheji emva kwelahleko (oko kukunyuswa kweebhejiisicwangcisoUkunyuswa kweebhejiNawuphi na umthetho otshintsha ibheji ngokweziphumo zangaphambili. Ukunyuswa okubi kuyinyusa emva kwelahleko, okuhle emva kokuphumelela.Funda yonke →, kwaye kunyusa isixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyoimaliIsixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyoIsixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo kwiseshoni okanye kwixesha elithile, kubalwa nemali ephumeleleyo ephinda ibhejwe. Kwakhona: handle, action.Funda yonke →). Ukutshintsha imibala emva kothotho lwabamnyama (ii-odds ezifanayo). Ukuhlala ngaphaya kwemijikelo engama-60 kuba “besiphantse sibuyise” (oko kukuxoxisana kwakhona ngomda welahleko). Ukubheja idaziniibhejiIdazini1–12, 13–24 okanye 25–36, ihlawula u-2:1.Funda yonke → “ebingekaveli” (inzuzo yekhasino efanayo, imilo eyahlukileyo). Nganye kwezi ngeyitshintshile imilo yengokuhlwa kwaye akukho nanye ngeyitshintshile iindleko zayo ezilindelekileyo.

Imibuzo

Kutheni i-$5 kungekho i-$10?

Iitshiphu ezingamashumi amabini esandleni endaweni yeshumi. Ingokuhlwa iyahlala; iindleko zomjikelo ngamnye ziyahlukana kubini.

Ingaba itafile yaseFransi ibinokunceda?

Ilahleko elindelekileyo i-$4.05 endaweni ye-$8.11. Ewe.

Ingaba uthotho lwabamnyama belungumqondiso?

Lwento engekhoyo. Amnyama alishumi elinesithathu kwimijikelo elishumi elinesithandathu kwenzeka malunga nengokuhlwa enye kwi-125.

Uncumo

Ibheji nemijikelo zibeka ixabiso. Ivili libeke imeko-ngqondo.

Ibheji nemijikelo zibeka ixabiso. Ivili libeke imeko-ngqondo.

Imithombo

  1. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Isahluko 13, i-roulette.
ihlolwe ngo-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, iqanda elinyeindlela yokusebenza ↗imithombo ↗