Izibalo · Ingcamango engundoqo · imiz. 7

Ixabiso elilindelekileyo kwi-roulette

Ixabiso elilindelekileyo kwi-roulette sisiphumo somndilili sebheji ukuba ubunokuyiphinda ngonaphakade. Kwi-roulette yaseYurophu liyafana kuyo yonke ibheji eqhelekileyo: ulahlekelwa yi-1/37 yebheji nganye, ngokomndilili, ngomjikelo.

Ngamazwi alula

Khawucinge ubeka ibheji efanayo ye-$10 kobomvu izigidi ezilinganayo nesinye. Eminye imijikelo iphumelela i-$10, eminye ilahlekelwa yi-$10. Dibanisa zonke iziphumo uze wahlule ngesigidi: ufumana malunga ne-−$0.27. Elo nani lixabiso elilindelekileyo lebheji ye-roulette. Asiyonto eyenzekayo kuwo nawuphi na umjikelo omnye; ngumndilili wexesha elide ngomjikelo.

Impendulo emfutshaneEV = amathuba okuphumelela × isixa esiphumelelweyo − amathuba okulahlekelwa × isixa esilahlekileyo. Kuyo yonke ibheji eqhelekileyo ye-roulette oko kuba yi-−2.70% yebheji.

Ifomula ye-EV yebheji ye-roulette

EV = p · W − (1 − p) · S
p = n/37 · W = S·(36/n − 1) · n = amanani agubungelweyo · S = ibheji

Faka umthetho wentlawulo ye-roulette, 36/n − 1, kwaye u-n uyaphela. Lelo libali lonke lenzuzo yekhasino kumgca omnye:

EV = (n/37)·S·(36/n − 1) − ((37−n)/37)·S
= S·(36 − n − 37 + n)/37
= −S/37

Zama: isibali sexabiso elilindelekileyo kwi-roulette

Khetha ukuba ibheji igubungela amanani amangaphi. Amathuba nentlawulo ziyatshintsha; ixabiso elilindelekileyo alitshintshi.

inani eli-1 eligubungelweyo · ihlawula 35:1ibheji $10

ilahleko 97.3%

p(ukuphumelela)1/37 = 2.70%

ukuphumelela kuhlawula+$350

ilahleko ibiza−$10

EV = p·W − (1−p)·S0.0270·$350 − 0.9730·$10

ixabiso elilindelekileyo−$0.27 ngomjikelo · −2.70%

Ijongeka njani ngokuhamba kwexesha

Isiphumo somndilili ngomjikelo kwibheji ye-$10 kobomvu, njengoko imijikelo isanda. Ekuqaleni, ithamsanqa liyalawula; umndilili oqhubekayo uzinza usiya kwi-−$0.27 njengoko isampuli ikhula. Oku kukusondela ngokuhamba kwexesha ikhasino exhomekeke kuko.

Umjikelo emva komjikelo, umndilili oqhubekayo uyayeka ukujingajinga kwaye uhlala ngaphantsi nje kweqanda.

Iingcinga ezingachanekanga eziqhelekileyo

“I-EV engalunganga (negative) ithetha ukuba ndiza kulahlekelwa kuyo yonke iseshoni.”

Hayi. Ithetha ukuba umndilili kwiiseshoni ezininzi yilahleko. Iiseshoni nganye ziyahluka kakhulu, ngakumbi kwiibheji ezinokwahluka okuphezulu njengebheji yenani elinye.

“Ikhasino idinga ixesha elide ukuze iphumelele.”

Inzuzo yekhasino isebenza kuwo wonke umjikelo; into eyenziwa lixesha elide kukwenza isiphumo siqikeleleke. Kwiseshoni enye, ithamsanqa ngamandla amakhulu.

“Ezinye iibheji zine-EV engcono kunezinye.”

Hayi kwi-roulette yaseYurophu, ngaphandle kwenye into: phantsi kwe-la partage okanye i-en prison, iibheji zemali elinganayo zinesiqingatha senzuzo yekhasino eqhelekileyo.

Uncumo

$Asiyonto eyenzekayo kumjikelo omnye. Ngumndilili wayo yonke.$

Asiyonto eyenzekayo kumjikelo omnye. Ngumndilili wayo yonke.