ILEBHUUVAVANYO 06df = 36α = 0.05imbewu 99

Ukuthambekela kwevili le-roulette

Ivili le-roulette elithambekileyo lithanda ezinye izikhewu ngenxa yesiphene somzimba: isahluli esikhululekileyo, irotha engalinganiyo, izikhewu ezigugileyo. Ukuthambekela kwevili le-roulette kukhona kwaye kuye kwasetyenziswa. Ubunzima bukukuba ivili elifanelekileyo ngokupheleleyo livelisa “amanani ashushu” rhoqo, ngoko umbuzo awusoze ube kukuba ingaba inani lishushu na, kodwa ukuba ingaba yonke ipatheni ithambeke ngakumbi na kunoko ithamsanqa likuvumelayo.

1. Thatha isampuli yevili elifanelekileyo

Imijikelo ethathwe kwivili elilinganisiweyo elingenakuthambekela kwaphela. Tshintsha ubukhulu besampuli uze ujonge esona sikhewu sishushu.

imijikelo370

okulindelekileyo kwisikhewu ngasinye10.0

isikhewu esishushu kakhulu20 · ukuphuma oku-16 (4.32%)

esishushu ngokuchasene nokulindelekileyo+60% · 1.9σ

chi-square · p32.8 · 0.622

isigqiboakukho bungqina bokuthambekela

2. Okubonwayo nokulindelekileyo

Ibha nganye sisikhewu ngolandelelwano lwevili. Umgca onamachokoza linani elilindelekileyo, n/37. Ibhanti enomthunzi yi-±2 yokutenxa okuqhelekileyo: kwivili elifanelekileyo malunga nesikhewu esinye kwamashumi amabini siya kuphuma ngaphandle kwayo ngenxa yethamsanqa kuphela.

0izikhewu ngolandelelwano lwevili →26

3. Uvavanyo lwe-chi-square

Uvavanyo ludibanisa ukuba isikhewu ngasinye sikude kangakanani nokulindelekileyo, siphindwe ngokwaso (squared) kwaye silinganiswe. Kwivili elifanelekileyo isiphumo silandela usasazo lwe-chi-square olunamanqanaba enkululeko angama-36; i-p-value engaphantsi kwe-0.05 ngokwesiko ibizwa ngokuba ibalulekile (significant).

χ² = Σ (Oᵢ − Eᵢ)² / Eᵢ Eᵢ = n/37 df = 36
n = 370 · E = 10.00 · χ² = 32.80 · p = 0.622

Isilumkiso ngobukhulu besampuliNgaphantsi kwemijikelo eyi-1,000 uvavanyo phantse alunamandla okufumanisa ukuthambekela okunokwenzeka ngokwenyani, kwaye isiphumo “esibalulekileyo” ku-p < 0.05 siya kwenzeka ngethamsanqa ka-1 kwiisampuli ezi-20 ezifanelekileyo ozijongayo. Ukuvavanya amavili amaninzi, okanye ukuphinda uvavanye ivili elinye de liphumelele, kuqinisekisa iziphumo zobuxoki.

4. Ungadinga imijikelo emingaphi

Imijikelo efunekayo ukufumanisa isikhewu esinye esiphuma rhoqo ngaphezu kwe-1/37, kwinqanaba le-5% kwicala elinye elinamandla e-80%. Isikhewu esiphuma ka-1 kwi-35 endaweni yoka-1 kwi-37 sinokuba yinzuzo enkulu kumdlali, kwaye kuthatha amashumi amawaka emijikelo ebhaliweyo ukuyiqinisekisa.

isantya sokwenyaniinzuzo yomdlaliimijikelo efunekayongemijikelo eyi-40/h

1 kwi-25+44.0%1,10828 h

1 kwi-30+20.0%4,392110 h

1 kwi-33+9.1%15,747394 h

1 kwi-35+2.9%69,4611,737 h

Ukuqinisekisa ukuthambekela kuthetha ukubhala imijikelo ubusuku emva kobusuku, amashumi amawaka ayo.

Indlela yokusebenza

Ukuthatha isampuli. Ukukhetha okulinganayo kwizikhewu ezingama-37 kusetyenziswa umvelisi onembewu (mulberry32, imbewu 99), ukuze iphepha liphindeke ngokufanayo.

Uvavanyo. I-Pearson chi-square goodness of fit, amanqanaba enkululeko angama-36, i-p-value evela kwi-regularized incomplete gamma function.

Amandla. Uqikelelo oluqhelekileyo (normal approximation) kuvavanyo lomlinganiselo omnye, α = 0.05 kwicala elinye, amandla 0.80.

Ubungakanani. Ukufumanisa ngezibalo kuphela. Izizathu zomzimba kunye nohlalutyo olusekelwe kumacandelo (endaweni yezikhewu) zichazwe kwi-Uhlalutyo lwecandelo.

Uncumo

Ivili elifanelekileyo lenza amanani ashushu rhoqo ebusuku. Ukungqina ukuthambekela kudinga amashumi amawaka emijikelo.

Imithombo

Pearson, K. (1900). On the criterion that a given system of deviations… Philosophical Magazine, 50(302).
Thorp, E. O. (1969). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. Review of the International Statistical Institute, 37(3).
Ethier, S. N. (2010). The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer. Isahluko 13, Roulette.