Isicwangciso · Ukunyuswa kweebheji okubi · imiz. 9

Isicwangciso se-Martingale kwi-roulette

Isicwangciso se-Martingale kwi-roulette siphinda kabini ibheji emva kwelahleko nganye kwaye sibuyela kwibheji esisiseko emva kokuphumelela. Ukuphumelela ngakunye kubuyisa zonke iilahleko zangaphambili kunye neyunithi enye esisiseko. Eli phepha lingezantsi libonisa ukuba oko kwenza ntoni kwimali yokudlala, nokuba kutheni kungenakuyitshintsha ilahleko elindelekileyo.

Impendulo emfutshaneAyilibethi ivili. Njengesicwangciso sokuphinda kabini kwi-roulette, i-Martingale ivelisa iimpumelelo ezininzi ezincinci kunye neelahleko ezinkulu ngamaxesha athile. Kulo naliphi na inani lemijikelo ilahleko elindelekileyo isengu-2.70% wesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo, kwaye ngenxa yokuba ukunyuswa kweebheji kubheja kakhulu, ilahleko elindelekileyo kwiseshoni nganye inkulu kunaxa ubheja ngokulinganayo, ayincinci.

Isebenza njani inkqubo ye-Martingale kwi-roulette?

Lahlekelwa, uze uphinde kabini. Phumelela, uze ubuyele kwibheji esisiseko. Yiyo yonke inkqubo leyo. Ngebheji esisiseko ye-$10 kunye nomda wetafile we-$500 ulandelelwano luphela emva kweelahleko ezintandathu. Ikholamu yokugqibela ngamathuba okufikelela kwelo nyathelo kwibheji yemali elinganayo, apho ilahleko nganye inamathuba angama-19/37.

ilahleko #ibheji elandelayoiyonke ebekwe emngciphekwenip(ukufikelela)

0$10$10100.00%

1$20$3051.35%

2$40$7026.37%

3$80$15013.54%

4$160$3106.95%

5$320$6303.57%

6$640$1,2701.83%

7$1,280$2,5500.94%

Ibheji esisiseko $10, umda wetafile $500. Emva kweelahleko ezintandathu ibheji elandelayo yi-$640, ngaphezu komda: ukunyuswa kweebheji kuyaphuka kulahlekwe i-$630. Amathuba eelahleko ezintandathu zilandelelana kobomvu ngu-(19/37)^6 = 1.83%, malunga kanye kumalinge angama-55.

Hamba ngenkqubo

Ilahleko iphinda kabini ibheji. Ukuphumelela kubuyela ekuqaleni.

ibheji elandelayo1isiphumo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku0imijikelo0

Iibheji neziphumo zikwiiyunithi zebheji yesiseko.

Ijongeka njani iseshoni?

Amanyathelo amancinci enyuka, emva koko umngxuma. Kwi-Martingale ye-roulette uthotho ngalunye olugqityiweyo lokuphinda kabini longeza ibheji enye esisiseko, ngoko umgca unyuka ngokuthe ngcembe. Uthotho olubetha umda we-$500 lubuyisa i-$630 ngaxeshanye: amanyathelo ali-63 kuloo manyathelo.

Iiseshoni ezilishumi ze-Martingale, isiseko se-$10, umda we-$500isiphumo xa kuthelekiswa nokuqala

iiseshoni ezi-1,000 × imijikelo eyi-500 · mfusa p10/p25/p75/p90, luhlaza okwesibhakabhaka okukhanyayo umbindi, iisampulu ezi-83 ezifiphele · hambisa isalathisi phezu kwegrafu ukuze ubone ii-quantile kumjikelo

p10 −$1,000
p25 −$1,000
umbindi −$1,000
p75 +$930
p90 +$1,830

iiseshoni ezi-1,000 × imijikelo eyi-500 · i-y-axis inqunyulwe kwi-1st–99th percentile (iziphelo −$1,000 ukuya ku-+$2,640) · imijikelo eyi-500 · isiseko $10 · imali elinganayo

Umgca ngamnye yiseshoni enye yeebheji zemali elinganayo ukusuka kwimali yokudlala ye-$1,000. Ukunyuka okude, ukuwa ngequbuliso.

Amanyathelo amancinci enyuka, emva koko umngxuma obathatha bonke ngaxeshanye.

Isilinganisi

Ukusetwa ngakunye kuqhuba iiseshoni ezi-2,000 zeebheji zemali elinganayo ukusuka kwimali yokudlala ye-$1,000. Iziphumo ziyahlaziyeka kwangoko.

Ibheji yesiseko

Umda wetafile

Imijikelo ngeseshoni

Iziphumo zeeseshoni · iiseshoni ezi-2,000 · imijikelo eyi-100 · isiseko $10 · umda $500ilahleko ← | → inzuzo

−$1,000$0+$650

beka isalathisi phezu komvalo · imivalo ebomvu ziiseshoni zokulahlekelwa, eziluhlaza zokuphumelela, umvalo ophaphathekileyo uphakathi kwe-$0

iiseshoni ezinenzuzo

40.8%

isiphumo sombindi

−$130

isiphumo somndilili

−$66.44

ukunyuswa kweebheji kwaphuka

59.3% yeeseshoni

ipesentayili yesi-5

−$1,000

umbindi wokuhla kwemali okuphezulu

−$650

Uninzi lweeseshoni luphela lunenzuzo encinane (40.8%), nto leyo etsalayo. Umndilili ungaphantsi kweqanda (−$66.44) kuba iiseshoni zokulahlekelwa zinkulu: ukunyuswa kweebheji kwafikelela kumda wetafile kwi-59.3% yeeseshoni. Umbheji obheja ngokulinganayo i-$10 kwimijikelo efanayo ulindele ukulahlekelwa malunga ne-$27.

Uthotho lokulahlekelwa luza kangaphi

Ibheji yemali elinganayo kwivili elineqanda elinye ilahlekelwa kwimijikelo eli-19 kwengama-37. Umqolo ngamnye ngamathuba okuba uthotho olunikiweyo lwemijikelo lulahleke lonke, kunye noko umdlali we-Martingale, ophinda kabini emva kwelahleko nganye, akulahlileyo ngelo xesha.

Ibheji yesiseko

ilahleko ngokulandelelana	amathuba	malunga ne-1 kwi	esele kulahlekile	ibheji elandelayo
1	51.4%	2	$1	$2
2	26.4%	4	$3	$4
3	13.5%	7	$7	$8
4	7.0%	14	$15	$16
5	3.6%	28	$31	$32
6	1.8%	55	$63	$64
7	0.94%	106	$127	$128
8	0.48%	207	$255	$256
9	0.25%	403	$511	$512
10	0.13%	784	$1,023	$1,024
11	0.065%	1527	$2,047	$2,048
12	0.034%	2974	$4,095	$4,096
13	0.017%	5792	$8,191	$8,192
14	0.0089%	11279	$16,383	$16,384
15	0.0046%	21965	$32,767	$32,768

Amathuba ngu-19/37 ophindaphindwe ngokwawo kanye kwilahleko nganye, kubalwa ukusuka kumjikelo omnye onikiweyo. Iseshoni ende inemijikelo emininzi apho uthotho olunjalo lunokuqala khona, ngoko ngokuhlwa kunokwenzeka ngakumbi kunoko umqolo omnye ubonisa.

Uthotho lweelahleko ezilishumi elinesihlanu lwenzeka malunga kanye kumalinge ali-22,000. Oko kuvakala kukhuselekile. Akunjalo, ngenxa yezizathu ezibini. Umjikelo ngamnye uqala ilinge elitsha, kwaye ubusuku bunamakhulu emijikelo. Kwaye akukho mntu ufika kweshumi elinesihlanu: ukusuka kwisiseko se-$10 umda we-$500 uphelisa ukuphinda kabini emva kweelahleko ezintandathu, ezenzeka malunga kanye kumalinge ali-55.

Kutheni ingenakuzitshintsha ii-odds?

Ixabiso elilindelekileyo liyadityaniswa. Ukuba ibheji nganye inokulindelekileyo okungu-−2.70% webheji yayo, ngoko nalo naluphi na ulandelelwano lweebheji, nokuba izixa zeebheji zikhethwa njani, lunokulindelekileyo okungu-−2.70% wesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo. Ukhetho lwesixa sebheji lunokuxhomekeka kwiziphumo ezidlulileyo; alunakuxhomekeka kwesilandelayo.

E[Σ bᵢ·Xᵢ] = Σ bᵢ·E[Xᵢ] = −(1/37)·Σ bᵢ
bᵢ ikhethwa ngaphambi komjikelo i; Xᵢ = ±1 izimele ku-bᵢ

Iingcinga ezingachanekanga eziqhelekileyo

“Kufuneka uphumelele kanye kuphela ukuze ubuyise yonke into.”

Kuyinyani ngaphakathi kokunyuswa kweebheji okugqityiweyo. Ukunyuswa okungagqitywanga, ngenxa yomda wetafile okanye yemali yakho yokudlala, kulahlekelwa lulandelelwano lonke, kwaye olo landelelwano lukhulu ngabom.

“Ngemali yokudlala eyaneleyo ayinakusilela.”

Umda wetafile uyakumisa ukuphinda kabini kwangaphambi kokuba uninzi lweemali zokudlala lwenjenjalo. Ngaphandle komda, imali yokudlala efunekayo ikhula ngokukhawuleza okukhulu (exponentially) ngelixa inzuzo kumjikelo wenkqubo ngamnye ihlala iyiyunithi enye esisiseko.

“Iilahleko ezintandathu zilandelelana phantse azinakwenzeka.”

Kobomvu kwenzeka kwi-1.83% yeefestile zemijikelo emithandathu. Kwiseshoni yemijikelo eyi-200 uya kuhlala ubona ubuncinane uthotho olunye lwezintandathu.

Uncumo

Iimpumelelo ezininzi ezincinci, ilahleko enye enqabileyo nenkulu. Kwaye ibango ulihlawula ngokwakho.

Isigqibo sezibaloInkqubo ye-Martingale kwi-roulette itshintshisa amathuba aphezulu enzuzo encinci ngamathuba amancinci elahleko enkulu. Yi-inshorensi ethengiswa ngendlela echaseneyo: uqokelela iprimiyamu encinci kwimihla emininzi ebusuku kwaye ibango elikhulu elinqabileyo ulihlawula ngokwakho. Inyusa isixa esibhejwayo kwiseshoni nganye, ngoko inyusa ilahleko elindelekileyo kwiseshoni nganye. Ayiyinciphisi kwaye ayinakuyinciphisa inzuzo yekhasino. Ukuba usasebenzisa isicwangciso se-Martingale kwi-roulette, yazi kwangaphambili indawo yakho yokwaphuka: ngesiseko se-$10 kunye nomda we-$500, ziilahleko ezintandathu ezilandelelanayo, isiganeko se-1.8% kwilinge ngalinye. Jonga Ulawulo lwemali yokudlala kwi-roulette kunye ne-Umda welahleko / umda wenzuzo.