Ukubaluleka ngokwezibalo-manani
“Ebalulekileyo” ithetha into engenakwenzeka kwivili elingenamkhethe, hayi “eyinyani” kwaye hayi “enenzuzo”.
I-p-value ye-0.05 ithetha ukuba ivili elingenamkhethe belinokuvelisa ipateni etyekele kangaka kanye kwamashumi amabini. Ukuba ujonga amavili angamashumi amabini, elinye liya kudlula ngengozi.
Yintoni i-p-value
AmathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lesiphumo, ukusuka ku-0 ukuya ku-1 okanye ku-0% ukuya ku-100%. Inani elinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda yonke → okubona ukutenxa okukhulu ubuncinane njengoko kubonwe, ukuba ivili belingenamkhethe. Yingxelo ngedatha phantsi kwengcinga, hayi ngevili. I-p-valueilebhup-valueAmathuba okubona ukutenxa okukhulu ubuncinci njengokubonwayo ukuba ivili belinobulungisa.Funda yonke → ye-0.03 ithi: ivili elingenamkhethe likwenza oku kwi-3% yexesha. Ayithi: kukho amathuba angama-97% okuba ivili lithambekile. Ingxelo yesibini ibiya kufuna ukwazi ukuba amavili athambekileyoilebhuIvili elithambekileyoIvili elineziphene ezenza ezinye izikhewu zibe namathuba angaphezulu kwe-1/37. Alifumaneki lula, linokubonwa kuphela ngamawaka emijikelo erekhodiweyo.Funda yonke → aqheleke kangakanani kwasekuqaleni, kwaye kwikhasino yanamhlanje anqabe kakhulu, nto leyo eyenza isiphumo esinye esibalulekileyo sibe nokwenzeka kakhulu ukuba yingozi kunokuba yinto efunyenweyo.
Uthelekiso oluninzi
Lonke uvavanyo oluqhuba kwivili elingenamkhethe lunamathuba ama-5% okudlula kwinqanaba le-5%. Vavanya amavili angamashumi amabini kwaye elinye liyadlula. Vavanya ivili elinye kumaxesha angamashumi amabini kwaye elinye liyadlula. Vavanya isampulu enye ngamaqela angama-37 ezikhewuizixhoboIsikhewuEsinye sezikhewu ezingama-37 ezinamanani kwirotha. Kwakhona: slot, cup.Funda yonke →, amaqela amathandathu amacandeloiviliIcandeloIsiqwenga esiqhubekayo sezikhewu evilini, esahlukileyo kwiqela elikwibhodi yokubheja.Funda yonke → namaqela amathathu emibala kwaye kukho into edlulayo. Isisombululo kukugqiba uvavanyo phambi kokujonga idatha, uluqhube kanye, uze uqinisekise kwidatha entsha. Ukuhlola okufumana ivili “elithambekileyo” kudla ngokuba yinto evelise isiphumo.
Ukubaluleka ngokuchasene nobukhulu
Isampulu enkulu kakhulu inokwenza ukuthambekela okungento ibe kubalulekile. Isikhewu esiphuma ku-1/36.5 endaweni ye-1/37 sisiphene sokwenyani esinokufikelela ekubalulekeni kwizigidi ezimbalwa zemijikelo kwaye sisalahlekelwa yimali kwintlawuloimaliIntlawuloOko ibheji ephumeleleyo ikubuyisayo, okuxelwa njengo-“X ku-1” ngaphezulu kwebheji ebuyisiweyo.Funda yonke → ye-35 ku-1. Okubalulekileyo kumdlali bubukhulu besiphumo: ingaba ukhona isikhewu esiphuma ku-1/36 okanye ngcono, kwaye ngakanani? I-chi-square ikuxelela ngevili; lizinga lokuphuma kuphela elikuxelela ngebheji.
Amandla
Enye impazamo kukuphosa ukuthambekela okukhoyo. Ngemijikelo eyi-1,000, isikhewu esiku-1/30 (ukuthambekela okukhulu kakhulu) sifunyanwa malunga nesiqingatha sexesha kuphela kwinqanaba le-5%. Ubungakanani besampulu, hayi ubukrelekrele, bulungisa oku. Iphepha elithi Ubungakanani besampulu linika amanani.
Umgangatho osebenzayo
Ukuze ibango lokuthambekela libe nomdla: uvavanyo olukhethwe kwangaphambili, p < 0.01 endaweni ye-0.05, ukuphinda kwisampulu ezimeleyo enobungakanani obufanayo, nezinga lokuphuma eliqikelelweyo kwizikhewu ezithandwayo le-1/34 okanye ngcono emva kokuphinda. Lo mgangatho uye wafikelelwa amaxesha ambalwa kwimbali yomdlalo kwaye zange, ngokokubonisa kweerekhodi zoluntu, kwivili lanamhlanje eligcinwayo.
Imibuzo
Isiqhelo esisusela kwiminyaka yee-1920. Akukho nto ikhethekileyo ngayo; i-0.01 ngumgangatho onengqiqo ngakumbi xa uhlola amavili amaninzi.
Mhlawumbi alivelisi ziphumo zilinganayo. Isenokuba sisiphumo somqhubi, impazamo yokubhala okanye ingxaki yokufaka idatha. Phinda.
Hayi. Sikuxelela ukuba ukwabiwa akuhambi kakuhle. Uhlalutyo lwecandelo nobukhulu besiphumo zikuxelela ukuba kuphi.
Ukonwaba ngezibalo
Qala uzizame ngokwakho. Isisombululo ngasinye sisongiwe; sivule xa ukulungele.
Ivili leqandaiviliIqandaIsikhewu esinye esiluhlaza esingagubungelwa yibheji yemali elinganayo, yedazini okanye yekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kwakhona: iqanda elinye, 0.Funda yonke → eliphindiweyo elichaziweyo laba nedaziniibhejiIdazini1–12, 13–24 okanye 25–36, ihlawula u-2:1.Funda yonke → yokuqala iphuma izihlandlo ezingama-742 kwimijikelo eyi-3,000. Ingaphi ukutenxa okuqhelekileyoizibaloUkutenxa okuqhelekileyo (standard deviation)Ingcambu yesikwere yokwahluka; umgama oqhelekileyo wesiphumo ukusuka kwixabiso elilindelekileyo.Funda yonke → ngaphantsi komndilili oko, kwaye ivili elifanelekileyo belinokwenza oko kangaphi?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo Malunga nokutenxa okuqhelekileyo okungu-8.1 ngaphantsi. Ivili elifanelekileyo belinokwenza oko malunga kanye kwiinzame ezi-3 × 10¹⁵, okuthetha ukuba alinakuze. Impendulo epapashwe nombuzo ithi yi-11.75; thina sifumana u-8.07.
Idazini yokuqala iqulethe ezili-12 kwizikhewuizixhoboIsikhewuEsinye sezikhewu ezingama-37 ezinamanani kwirotha. Kwakhona: slot, cup.Funda yonke → ezingama-38. Kwimijikelo eyi-3,000 inomndilili we-3,000 × 12/38 = 947.4 ukuphuma, nokusasazeka kwe-√(3,000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25.5.
U-742 ungaphantsi komndilili ngama-205.4: 205.4/25.5 = 8.07 ukusasazeka.
Ivili elifanelekileyo liwa ngaphantsi ngokusasazeka okuthathu malunga kanye kwiinzame ezingama-740; ngokusasazeka okusibhozo, malunga kanye kwi-3 × 10¹⁵ (igophe lentsimbi, icala elinye). Ukuthathela ingqalelo ukuba umfundi uqaphele eyona imbi kwiidazini ezintathu akutshintshi nto ibalulekileyo. Isiphumo esinje sithi ivili, okanye ukubala, akuchananga. Kwivili leqanda elinye ukubala okufanayo bekuya kuba kukusasazeka okungu-9.0 ngaphantsi (umndilili 973.0, ukusasazeka 25.6).
Uncumo
Ivili elinye kumavili angamashumi amabini angenamkhethe “libalulekile”. Yiyo le nto ithethwa linani.
Imithombo
- Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…”
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, roulette questions.