Umzekelo: iseshoni ye-Martingale
Iidola ezilishumi kobomvu, ziphindaphindwa kabini emva kwelahleko nganye, kwitafile ye-$500. Umjikelo ngomjikelo, kuquka umjikelo oyiphelisayo.
Iseshoni elinganisiweyo ye-Martingale ukusuka kwimali yokudlala ye-$1,000. Iimpumelelo ezincinci ezingamashumi amane ananye, emva koko iilahleko ezintandathu ngokulandelelana nebheji yesixhenxe engamkelwanga. Iseshoni iphela ihle nge-$220 emva kokuba ibiphambili nge-$410, nto leyo iyiyo eyenziwa yinkqubo.
Isicwangciso
Bheja i-$10 kobomvuibhejiObomvuIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 abomvu. NgesiFrentshi: rouge.Funda yonke →. Emva kwelahleko, phindaphinda kabini. Emva kwempumelelo, buyela kwi-$10. Umda wetafileitafileUmda wetafileIbheji encinci nenkulu evumelekileyo. Ubuninzi yinto emisa ukunyuswa kweebheji okuphindaphindayo.Funda yonke → yi-$500, ngoko iibheji zi-10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320 emva koko ibheji ye-$640 etafile eya kuyala. Iilahleko ezintandathu ngokulandelelana ziyayophula inkqubo; ilinge ngalinye line-(19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% yokwenza oko, kwaye iseshoni yemijikelo eli-100 iqulethe amalinge amalunga nama-50. Kulindelwe: amathuba amalunga ne-60% okwaphuka kwimijikelo eli-100, nelahleko ye-$630 xa kusenzeka.
Imijikelo 1–30
I-MartingaleisicwangcisoMartingaleUkunyuswa kweebheji okuphindaphinda ibheji emva kokulahlekelwa ngakunye. Bona icandelo lezicwangciso ukuze wazi oko ikwenzayo nengakwenziyo.Funda yonke → eqhelekileyo: uthotho lweelahleko ezinye ukuya kwezintathu, nganye iphelisa ngempumelelo ezuza +$10. Kumjikelo wama-30 sinempumelelo ezili-17, nganye ivala umjikelo wenkqubo, kwaye siphambili nge-$170. Eyona bheji inkulu ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ibiyi-$80 emva kweelahleko ezintathu. Kuziva ngathi ngumatshini oprinta amaphepha e-$10.
Imijikelo 31–60
Okufanayo kwakhona, nomjikelo wenkqubo omnye weelahleko ezine (iibheji ukuya kwi-$160, emva koko impumelelo) owabeka okwethutyana i-$310 etafileni waza waziva ngathi sisibindi. Emva kwemijikelo engama-60: imijikelo yenkqubo engama-41 igqityiwe, siphambili nge-$410, kwaye eyona ndawo iphantsi yemali yokudlalaimaliImali yokudlalaIsixa esipheleleyo esibekelwe ukudlala. Ulawulo lwemali yokudlala kukugqiba ukuba ingakanani kuyo oyibeka emngciphekweni kwibheji nganye nakwiseshoni nganye.Funda yonke → ibiyi-$1,040. Ihistogram yayo yonke iseshoni ye-Martingale ikhangeleka ngolu hlobo ubukhulu becala.
Imijikelo 61–66
L L L L L L. Iibheji 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320: i-$630 ilahlekile. Ibheji elandelayo ingaba yi-$640; umda yi-$500. Inkqubo yaphukile. Singabheja i-$500 (kwaye ukuba iyaphumelela, sisahle nge-$130 kumjikelo wenkqubo) okanye sibuyele kwi-$10 samkele ilahleko. AmnyamaibhejiOmnyamaIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 amnyama. NgesiFrentshi: noir.Funda yonke → okanye amaqandaiviliIqandaIsikhewu esinye esiluhlaza esingagubungelwa yibheji yemali elinganayo, yedazini okanye yekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kwakhona: iqanda elinye, 0.Funda yonke → amathandathu ngokulandelelana anamathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lesiphumo, ukusuka ku-0 ukuya ku-1 okanye ku-0% ukuya ku-100%. Inani elinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda yonke → e-1.8% kumjikelo wenkqubo ngamnye. Besidlale imijikelo yenkqubo emalunga nama-45. Amathuba okufikelela apha kwenye indawo kwimijikelo yenkqubo engama-45 ebemalunga nama-55%. Ibingelilo ishwa; ibingumbindi.
- p10 −$1,000
- p25 −$1,000
- umbindi −$1,000
- p75 +$790
- p90 +$1,690
Iiakhawunti
Siphambili nge-$410 emva kwemijikelo engama-60, sihle nge-$220 emva kwama-66. Isixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo: malunga ne-$2,100 kwimijikelo engama-66, xa kuthelekiswa ne-$660 yomdlali obheja i-$10 ngokulinganayo. Ilahleko elindelekileyoizibaloIlahleko elindelekileyoIxabiso elilindelekileyo liphindwe ngesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo; isixa esiphakathi esilahlekayo kwiseshoni okanye kwixesha elithile.Funda yonke → kwi-$2,100 yesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyoimaliIsixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyoIsixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo kwiseshoni okanye kwixesha elithile, kubalwa nemali ephumeleleyo ephinda ibhejwe. Kwakhona: handle, action.Funda yonke → yi-$57; i-−$220 yethu yokwenyani imalunga nesinye kwisithathu sokutenxa okuqhelekileyo (standard deviation)izibaloUkutenxa okuqhelekileyo (standard deviation)Ingcambu yesikwere yokwahluka; umgama oqhelekileyo wesiphumo ukusuka kwixabiso elilindelekileyo.Funda yonke → ngaphantsi kwaloo nto, nto leyo ingaqapheleki kwinkqubo enosasazeko olunomsila omde ngasekhohlo. Ukuba besimile kumjikelo wama-60 ngomda wenzuzoisicwangcisoUmda wenzuzoInjongo yenzuzo emiselwe kwangaphambili apho uyeka khona iseshoni.Funda yonke → we-$400, ngesihambe siphambili nge-$410, kwaye iseshoni elandelayo ngeyiphethe i-1.8% efanayo kumjikelo wenkqubo ngamnye.
Oko kubonakaliswa yile seshoni
I-Martingale iguqula ibheji ye-48.65% ibe lulandelelwano oluphumelela kwi-98% yemijikelo yenkqubo yalo kwaye lulahlekelwa ziiyunithiimaliIyunithiIbheji esisiseko esetyenziswa yinkqubo okanye ngumdlali. Ukunyuswa kweebheji kuchazwa ngeeyunithi ukuze kusebenze kuyo nayiphi na itafile.Funda yonke → ezingama-63 kwenye i-2%. Ayitshintshi ilahleko elindelekileyo kwidola nganye; iphindaphinda iidola. Umdlali obheja ngokulinganayo ecaleni kwethu ubheje isinye kwisithathu sento esiyibhejileyo kwaye walahlekelwa, ngokomndilili, sisinye kwisithathu. Umdlali oqhuba le nkqubo unyaka wonke uya kuphumelela uninzi lwangokuhlwa aze alahlekelwe ngunyaka.
Uthotho lokulahlekelwa luza kangaphi
Ibheji yemali elinganayo kwivili elineqanda elinye ilahlekelwa kwimijikelo eli-19 kwengama-37. Umqolo ngamnye ngamathuba okuba uthotho olunikiweyo lwemijikelo lulahleke lonke, kunye noko umdlali we-Martingale, ophinda kabini emva kwelahleko nganye, akulahlileyo ngelo xesha.
| ilahleko ngokulandelelana | amathuba | malunga ne-1 kwi | esele kulahlekile | ibheji elandelayo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Amathuba ngu-19/37 ophindaphindwe ngokwawo kanye kwilahleko nganye, kubalwa ukusuka kumjikelo omnye onikiweyo. Iseshoni ende inemijikelo emininzi apho uthotho olunjalo lunokuqala khona, ngoko ngokuhlwa kunokwenzeka ngakumbi kunoko umqolo omnye ubonisa.
Imibuzo
Iilahleko ezilithoba ziyayophula endaweni yezintandathu: 0.25% kumjikelo wenkqubo ngamnye, ne-$5,110 elahlekayo xa kusenzeka. Umwonyo onqabileyo, umwonyo ophakamileyo, i-−2.70% efanayo.
Ngeyiphumelele kwi-48.65% yamaxesha yaza yashiya umjikelo wenkqubo kwi-−$130 nangoko. Akukho nyathelo lilungileyo emva kwe-Martingale eyaphukileyo; kukho kuphela ibheji oyikhethayo elandelayo.
Ewe, kuloo seshoni. Hayi kumndilili wazo zonke iiseshoni.
Ukonwaba ngezibalo
Qala uzizame ngokwakho. Isisombululo ngasinye sisongiwe; sivule xa ukulungele.
Kwitafile ye-$1 ukuya kwi-$500, umdlali we-MartingaleisicwangcisoMartingaleUkunyuswa kweebheji okuphindaphinda ibheji emva kokulahlekelwa ngakunye. Bona icandelo lezicwangciso ukuze wazi oko ikwenzayo nengakwenziyo.Funda yonke → uqala nge-$1 kobomvuibhejiObomvuIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 abomvu. NgesiFrentshi: rouge.Funda yonke → kwivili leqandaiviliIqandaIsikhewu esinye esiluhlaza esingagubungelwa yibheji yemali elinganayo, yedazini okanye yekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kwakhona: iqanda elinye, 0.Funda yonke → elinye. Zingaphi ilahleko ngokulandelelana ezimisa ukuphinda kabini, kulahleke malini ngelo xesha, kwaye kwenzeka kangaphi?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo Ilahleko ezilithoba: i-$511 ilahlekile, kwaye ibheji elandelayo ibiya kuba yi-$512. Kwenzeka kanye malunga kulandelelwano olungama-403.
Iibheji zi-1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 no-256: kunye zi-$511. Eyeshumi ibiya kuba yi-$512, ngaphezu komda. Ibheji ye-$500 ephumeleleyo isashiya umdlali engaphantsi nge-$11; elahlekayo imshiya engaphantsi nge-$1,011.
Obomvu ulahlekelwa ngamathuba angu-19/37, ngoko ilahleko ezilithoba ngokulandelelana zinamathuba angu-(19/37)⁹ ≈ 0.25%, kanye malunga kulandelelwano olungama-403. Ulandelelwano ngalunye olugqityiweyo luphumelela i-$1, ngoko umdlali ulindele malunga ne-$402 yokuphumelela okuncinci phambi kwelahleko enye ye-$511, kwaye i-2.70% yayo yonke into ebhejiweyo isalahleka ngokomndilili.
Kwivili leqanda eliphindiweyo amathuba ngu-(20/38)⁹, kanye malunga kuma-323. UBollman (2021) uprinta “malunga no-1 kuma-833”, nto leyo eyi-(18/38)⁹, amathuba okuphumelela kalithoba ngokulandelelana.
Uncumo
Iimpumelelo ezincinci ezingamashumi amane ananye nelahleko enye enkulu. Yiyo yonke inkqubo leyo.
Imithombo
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”