Amathuba oluhlu lweziphumo kwi-roulette
Uluhlu olude lombala omnye luqhelekile. Kwakhona aluthethi nto ngomjikelo olandelayo.
Obomvu abahlanu ngokulandelelana: 2.7%. Alishumi: 0.074%. Kwiseshoni yemijikelo engama-200 uluhlu lwesithandathu sombala omnye luvela kaninzi kunokuba lungaveli.
Uthotho lokulahlekelwa luza kangaphi
Ibheji yemali elinganayo kwivili elineqanda elinye ilahlekelwa kwimijikelo eli-19 kwengama-37. Umqolo ngamnye ngamathuba okuba uthotho olunikiweyo lwemijikelo lulahleke lonke, kunye noko umdlali we-Martingale, ophinda kabini emva kwelahleko nganye, akulahlileyo ngelo xesha.
| ilahleko ngokulandelelana | amathuba | malunga ne-1 kwi | esele kulahlekile | ibheji elandelayo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Amathuba ngu-19/37 ophindaphindwe ngokwawo kanye kwilahleko nganye, kubalwa ukusuka kumjikelo omnye onikiweyo. Iseshoni ende inemijikelo emininzi apho uthotho olunjalo lunokuqala khona, ngoko ngokuhlwa kunokwenzeka ngakumbi kunoko umqolo omnye ubonisa.
Uluhlu olunye
AmathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lesiphumo, ukusuka ku-0 ukuya ku-1 okanye ku-0% ukuya ku-100%. Inani elinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda yonke → okuba imijikelo eyi-k elandelayo yonke ibe bomvuibhejiObomvuIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 abomvu. NgesiFrentshi: rouge.Funda yonke → ngu-(18/37)ᵏ. Mibini: 23.7%. Mihlanu: 2.7%. Lishumi: 0.074%, malunga no-1 ku-1,350. Ingamashumi amabini: 1 kwizigidi ezi-1.8. Ingamashumi amabini anesithandathu, irekhodi yaseMonte Carlo: 1 kwizigidi ezili-137. La ngamathuba oluhlu oluthile oluqala kumjikelo othile, nto leyo phantse kungekho mntu uyibuzayo ngokwenene.
Kwiseshoni
Umbuzo abantu abawuthethayo ngowokuthi “ingaba uluhlu lwe-k luya kuvela ndaweni ithile kwiseshoni yam?”, kwaye impendulo inkulu kakhulu kuno-(18/37)ᵏ kuba iseshoni yemijikelo engama-200 inika phantse iindawo ezingama-200 apho uluhlu lunokuqala khona. Uluhlu lwesithandathu nangaphezulu sombala omnye, obomvu okanye omnyamaibhejiOmnyamaIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 amnyama. NgesiFrentshi: noir.Funda yonke →, luvela kwiseshoni yemijikelo engama-200 malunga nama-94% exesha; isibhozo nangaphezulu malunga nama-47%; ishumi nangaphezulu malunga ne-14%. Khetha umbala kwangaphambili kwaye amathuba ayehla, aye malunga nama-75%, ama-27% nesi-7%. Umdlali ohlala ubusuku bonke uya kubona uluhlu olude rhoqo ngobusuku.
Kutheni i-Martingale ikhathalela oku
Yonke ukunyuswa kweebhejiisicwangcisoUkunyuswa kweebhejiNawuphi na umthetho otshintsha ibheji ngokweziphumo zangaphambili. Ukunyuswa okubi kuyinyusa emva kwelahleko, okuhle emva kokuphumelela.Funda yonke → okubi kunobude boluhlu obukwaphulayo: ilahleko ezintandathu ukusuka kwisiseko se-$10 kumda we-$500, ishumi kwi-FibonacciisicwangcisoFibonacciUkunyuswa kweebheji okulandela uthotho 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…: inyathelo elinye phambili emva kokulahlekelwa, amanyathelo amabini umva emva kokuphumelela.Funda yonke →, ezintlanu xa uphinda kathathu kwiidaziniibhejiIdazini1–12, 13–24 okanye 25–36, ihlawula u-2:1.Funda yonke →. Amathuba oluhlu lwelahleko ezintandathu kwibheji yemali elinganayo ngu-(19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% ngelinge ngalinye, kwaye iseshoni yemijikelo engama-200 inokuba namalinge ali-100, ngoko ukwaphuka kufika malunga kwiiseshoni ezine kwezintlanu zobo bude. Amathuba oluhlu lweziphumo kwi-roulette ngunobangela wokuba iliwa lingabi yinto enqabileyo.
Amanani ashushu nabandayo
Izibalo ezifanayo zisebenza kwiibheji zenani elinyeibhejiInani elinyeInani elinye, ihlawula u-35:1.Funda yonke →. Kwimijikelo engama-300 inani elilindelekileyo lokuphuma kwenani ngalinye ngu-8.1; ukutenxa okuqhelekileyoizibaloUkutenxa okuqhelekileyo (standard deviation)Ingcambu yesikwere yokwahluka; umgama oqhelekileyo wesiphumo ukusuka kwixabiso elilindelekileyo.Funda yonke → kumalunga no-2.8. Elinye inani liya kuphuma ali-15 amaxesha, elinye ama-2 ngethamsanqa nje, qho. Ibhodi yeziphumo egqamisa amanani “ashushu” igqamisa incopho yokwabiwa okuqhelekileyo. Ilebhu ye-roulette ichaza ukuba kufuneka imijikelo emingaphi phambi kokuba inani elishushuintsomiInani elishushuInani eliphume kaninzi kunokulindelekileyo kutshanje. Kwivili elinobulungisa alixeli nto.Funda yonke → lithethe into (amawaka, kwivili elinye elaziwayo).
Ukuzimela kuyiyo yonke inyaniso
Uluhlu lwabomvu abalishumi alwenzi omnyama abe nokwenzeka ngakumbi, kwaye alwenzi obomvu abe nokwenzeka ngakumbi. Bobabini ngu-18/37. Uluhlu lweziphumo luphawu lolandelelwano olungacwangciswanga kwaye ukungabikho kwalo bekuya kurhanelisa: ulandelelwano lwemijikelo engama-200 olungenaluhlu lude kunesine bekuya kuba bubungqina obunamandla kakhulu bokuphazanyiswa kunolo lunoluhlu lweshumi elinambini.
Ifomula
Imibuzo
Abamnyama abangama-26 eMonte Carlo nge-18 Agasti 1913 lolona ludumileyo. Abomvu abangama-32 ngokulandelelana kwaxelwa kwikhasino yaseMelika ngo-1943. Zombini ziyahambelana nethamsanqa xa ucinga ukuba iikhasino ziqhuba imijikelo emingaphi.
Ngu-18/37 nokuba kunjani. Bheja oko kuthethwa sisicwangciso sakho, okanye ungabheji nto.
Hayi. Ukuthambekela kuvela njengokuba izikhewuizixhoboIsikhewuEsinye sezikhewu ezingama-37 ezinamanani kwirotha. Kwakhona: slot, cup.Funda yonke → ezithile ziphuma kaninzi kwimijikelo engamawaka, hayi njengoluhlu lombala.
Ukonwaba ngezibalo
Qala uzizame ngokwakho. Isisombululo ngasinye sisongiwe; sivule xa ukulungele.
Kuthatha imijikelo emingaphi yevili laseYurophu, ngomndilili, ngaphambi kokuba onke amanani angama-37 aphume ubuncinane kanye?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo Malunga nemijikelo eli-155 ngomndilili; umbindi ngu-147.
Bala ukulinda inani elitsha elinye ngexesha. Umjikelo wokuqala uhlala ubonisa inani elitsha. Xa sele ubone inani eli-1, izikhewuizixhoboIsikhewuEsinye sezikhewu ezingama-37 ezinamanani kwirotha. Kwakhona: slot, cup.Funda yonke → ezingama-36 kwezingama-37 zintsha, ngoko inani elitsha elilandelayo lithatha imijikelo engama-37/36 ngomndilili. Xa sele ubone amanani ali-k, kuthatha u-37/(37 − k).
Dibanisa ukulinda: 37/37 + 37/36 + 37/35 + … + 37/1 = 37 × (1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + … + 1/37) ≈ 37 × 4.20 = 155.5 imijikelo.
Uninzi lwako lusekupheleni. Inani lokugqibela lodwa lithatha imijikelo engama-37 ngomndilili, kwaye amahlanu okugqibela malunga nama-85. Kwivili laseMelika eso sibalo sinika malunga ne-161. Le yingxaki yomqokeleli wee-coupon; umndilili ofanayo ulandela kwisibalo esiqhelekileyo.
Kwimijikelo engama-37 yevili laseYurophu, umjikelo omnye kwisikhewu ngasinye, ufanele ulindele ukubona amanani ahlukeneyo amangaphi?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo Malunga nama-23.6. Phantse isinye kwisithathu samanani, malunga ne-13, akaphumi kwaphela.
Thatha inani elinye, masithi u-17. Kumjikelo ngamnye akaphumi ngethuba elingu-36/37, ngoko uphosa yonke imijikelo engama-37 ngethuba (36/37)³⁷ ≈ 0.363.
Inani ngalinye linethuba elifanayo, ngoko ngomndilili amanani angama-37 × 0.363 ≈ 13.4 akhoyo kwaye angama-37 − 13.4 ≈ 23.6 ayaphuma, uninzi lwawo kabini nangaphezulu.
Abadlali be-roulette bakubiza ngokuba ngumthetho wezithathu. Asingomthetho, kodwa sisibalo sokuphindwa nje: kuthotho olude njengevili, malunga nesinye kwisithathu samanani ahlala ecaleni, kwivili elifanelekileyo njengakwelinye nalinye. Kwizikhewu ezingama-38 isabelo sikwangu-(37/38)³⁸ ≈ 0.363; kwivili elikhulu sizinza kufutshane no-1/e ≈ 0.368.
Umhlobo ukubonisa uluhlu olubini lwemibala engama-50, obomvuibhejiObomvuIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 abomvu. NgesiFrentshi: rouge.Funda yonke → okanye omnyamaibhejiOmnyamaIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 amnyama. NgesiFrentshi: noir.Funda yonke →, ngamnye kuthiwa uvela kwivili apho amaqandaiviliIqandaIsikhewu esinye esiluhlaza esingagubungelwa yibheji yemali elinganayo, yedazini okanye yekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kwakhona: iqanda elinye, 0.Funda yonke → ashiywe ngaphandle. Olunye lutshintsha umbala izihlandlo ezingama-25 kwaye olona thotho lwalo lude lulithandathu. Olunye lutshintsha izihlandlo ezingama-35 kwaye aludluli kwisithathu. Loluphi oluqanjiweyo?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo Olwesibini. Uluhlu lwenene lutshintsha malunga nezihlandlo ezingama-24 okanye ezingama-25. Olunotshintsho olungama-35 luvela malunga kanye kuluhlu olungama-500, kwaye olungenalo uthotho olude ngaphezu kwesithathu malunga kabini kwezili-100.
Umbala omtsha ngamnye uphinda lowo wokugqibela okanye uyatshintsha, isiqingatha nesiqingatha, ngoko amathuba angama-49 okutshintsha anika utshintsho olungama-24.5 ngomndilili, ngaphezulu okanye ngaphantsi malunga ne-3.5. Amashumi amathathu anesihlanu angamanyathelo amathathu anjalo ngaphezu komndilili; ivili elifanelekileyo livelisa olo tshintsho malunga kanye kuluhlu olungama-500.
Uthotho lubalisa ibali elifanayo. Uluhlu lwenene lwama-50 lunothotho lwesine nangaphezulu malunga ne-98% yexesha, kwaye olona thotho lwalo lude ludla ngokuba sisihlanu okanye sisithandathu.
Abantu abacelwe ukuqamba uluhlu olungacwangciswanga batshintsha kakhulu, kuba uthotho lwesine okanye lwesihlanu lubonakala kubo njengepateni. U-Taylor (2021) ubonisa uphawu olufanayo kuluhlu lokuphosa iingqekembe oluqanjwe ngabafundi: ukungacwangciswa kwenene kunothotho olungakumbi kunokuba abantu belindele.
Incwadi yamabali ekhasino ibalisa ngomdlali onani lakhe laphuma kahlanu ngokulandelelana kwaye ikubiza ngokuba yirekhodi. Kunqabe kangakanani oko kwivili laseYurophu? Kwaye kufanele kwenzeke kangaphi kwindawo ethile kwikhasino enye eneetafile ezingama-20, nganye ijikelezisa izihlandlo ezingama-40 ngeyure, imini nobusuku?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo Inani elichaziweyo liphuma kahlanu ngokulandelelana: 1 kwizigidi ezingama-69. Nawuphi na inani liphuma kane ngaphezulu emva kokuvela kwalo okokuqala: 1 kwizigidi ezi-1.87. Loo khasino ijikelezisa malunga nezigidi ezi-7 ngonyaka, ngoko ifanele ibone uthotho lwesihlanu kathathu okanye kane ngonyaka.
Inani elichaziweyo liphuma ngethuba eli-1/37 kumjikelo ngamnye, ngoko ezintlanu ngokulandelelana zinethuba elingu-(1/37)⁵ = 1 kwi-69,343,957. Kodwa akukho mntu uchaza inani kwangaphambili. Nantoni na ephuma kuqala, imijikelo emine elandelayo kufuneka iyiphinde: (1/37)⁴ = 1 kwi-1,874,161.
Iitafile ezingama-20 × imijikelo engama-40 × iiyure ezingama-24 × iintsuku ezingama-365 = imijikelo engama-7,008,000 ngonyaka. Umjikelo ngamnye unokuqalisa uthotho, ngoko ikhasino ilindele u-7,008,000/1,874,161 ≈ 3.7 uthotho lwesihlanu ngonyaka.
Akukho rekhodi isemthethweni yolu hlobo ikhoyo, kwaye akukho efunekayo: isiganeko esinqabileyo kwitafile enye siyinto eqhelekileyo kwikhasino iphela, kwaye amabali abaliswa ngetafile apho kwenzeke khona. Ibali, ku-Goldman (2007), libekwe kwivili leqanda eliphindiweyo, apho amanani ali-1 kwizigidi ezingama-79 no-1 kwizigidi ezi-2.09.
Uncumo
Uluhlu olude lukhangeleka ngolu hlobo xa into ingacwangciswanga.
Imithombo
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.