Intsomi: isicwangciso se-roulette esisoloko siphumelela
“Ndinenkqubo ephumelela kwi-80% yamaxesha.” Usenokuba nayo. Isalahlekelwa yimali.
Inkqubo inokwenza iiseshoni eziphumelelayo zixhaphake. Ayinakwenza ixabiso elilindelekileyo libe lihle, kuba yonke ibheji eyibekayo ingu-−1/37 webheji yayo, kwaye amaxabiso alindelekileyo ayadityaniswa. Iinkqubo eziphumelela rhoqo zezona zilahlekelwa kakhulu xa zilahlekelwa.
Ibango
Inkolelo: kwenye indawo kukho isicwangciso se-roulette esisoloko siphumelela, inkqubo yeebheji ezahlukahlukeneyo ngokusekelwe kwiziphumo zangaphambili eguqula i-roulette ibe ngumdlalo ophumelelayo. Ubungqina obunikwayo: uthotho lweeseshoni eziphumelelayo, ividiyo yendlela yokuphumelela kwi-roulette qho, ubungqina bomntu, iphepha lezibalo leveki enethamsanqa. Ibango lidla ngokuba nyanisekileyo; umntu uyalikholelwa kuba belisebenza.
Kutheni lingalunganga, ngomgca omnye
Amaxabiso alindelekileyoizibaloIxabiso elilindelekileyoIsiphumo esiphakathi kwibheji nganye ekuhambeni kwexesha elide. −1/37 yebheji kuyo yonke ibheji eqhelekileyo yaseYurophu.Funda yonke → ayadityaniswa. Ukuba ibheji nganye ine-EV = −1/37 webheji yayo, naluphi na uthotho lweebheji lune-EV = −1/37 wesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo, nokuba ngowuphi umthetho okhethe iibheji. Inkqubo ngumthetho wokukhetha iibheji. Ngoko ke yonke inkqubo ine-EV = −1/37 wesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyoimaliIsixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyoIsixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo kwiseshoni okanye kwixesha elithile, kubalwa nemali ephumeleleyo ephinda ibhejwe. Kwakhona: handle, action.Funda yonke →. Le yithiyori (u-Doob no-Halmos bayingqina ngeminyaka yee-1930; u-Thorp 1969 uchaza imiqathango), kwaye ayinazinto zahlukileyo kwimithetho ekrelekrele. Umqathango omnye ofanele ukwaziwa yibheji encinci: umzekelo ka-Thorp ubheja i-$1,000 kobomvuibhejiObomvuIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 abomvu. NgesiFrentshi: rouge.Funda yonke →, emva koko iisenti ezingama-90, emva koko iisenti ezi-9 njalo njalo, incipha ngonaphakade. Ngamathuba angama-18/37 ibheji yokuqala iyaphumelela kwaye umdlali uhlala ephambili ngokusisigxina, nangona isiphumo esilindelekileyo sisengu-−1/37 wayo yonke into ebhejiweyo. Ubuncinci betafile yokwenyani buyakuthintela oko, kwaye kunye nabo lonke ithemba lokuhlala uphambili kwixesha elide.
Ukusondela ngokuhamba kwexesha: umthetho wamanani amakhulu kwi-roulette
Kutheni kubonakala ngathi iyasebenza
Ukunyuswa kweebhejiisicwangcisoUkunyuswa kweebhejiNawuphi na umthetho otshintsha ibheji ngokweziphumo zangaphambili. Ukunyuswa okubi kuyinyusa emva kwelahleko, okuhle emva kokuphumelela.Funda yonke → okubi kwenza iiseshoni eziphumelelayo zixhaphake. I-MartingaleisicwangcisoMartingaleUkunyuswa kweebheji okuphindaphinda ibheji emva kokulahlekelwa ngakunye. Bona icandelo lezicwangciso ukuze wazi oko ikwenzayo nengakwenziyo.Funda yonke → esuka kwi-$10 kumda we-$500 iphelisa malunga ne-80% yeeseshoni zemijikelo eli-100 iphambili ngeeyunithiimaliIyunithiIbheji esisiseko esetyenziswa yinkqubo okanye ngumdlali. Ukunyuswa kweebheji kuchazwa ngeeyunithi ukuze kusebenze kuyo nayiphi na itafile.Funda yonke → ezimbalwa. Umdlali oyisebenzisa kwiiseshoni ezingamashumi amabini uphumelela kwezilishumi elinesithandathu kwaye ukhumbula oko. Iiseshoni ezine ezilahlekayo nganye ilahlekelwa ngaphezu koko kwenziwa ziiseshoni eziphumelelayo ezilishumi, kwaye izibalo kwiiseshoni ezingamashumi amabini zibi. Inkqubo ayiwutshintshanga umndilili; ihambise iilahleko kwiiseshoni ezimbalwa, ezinkulu, apho kulula ukuzibiza ngokuba lishwa.
Uvavanyo onokulwenza nabani na
Isilinganisi sesicwangciso se-roulette kule sayithi senza iiseshoni ezili-10,000 zayo nayiphi na inkqubo, okanye ikhowudi yakho, ngomzuzwana. Sibeke kwinkqubo oyikholelwayo uze ufunde umndilili. Ukuba umndilili ubulungile kuyo nayiphi na imimiselo, eli phepha belinokutsho. Yonke imimiselo, yonke inkqubo, yonke imida yetafileitafileUmda wetafileIbheji encinci nenkulu evumelekileyo. Ubuninzi yinto emisa ukunyuswa kweebheji okuphindaphindayo.Funda yonke → inika umndilili we-−2.70% yesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo kunye nengxolo. Ubungqina babantu ziisampulu zomntu omnye; isilinganisi ziisampulu zeewaka elilishumi.
Inkqubo engenakulahlekelwa
Ngo-1997 umbhali we-poker u-Mike Caro wathumela inkqubo ye-roulette njengehlaya, yaye i-Gambling Times yayipapasha kwakhona ngo-2001. Luluhlu lweebheji ekufuneka uziphephe: ungaze ubheje kobomvu okanye komnyamaibhejiOmnyamaIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 amnyama. NgesiFrentshi: noir.Funda yonke →, amanani angalinganiyo okanye alinganayo, okanye amaqandaiviliIqandaIsikhewu esinye esiluhlaza esingagubungelwa yibheji yemali elinganayo, yedazini okanye yekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kwakhona: iqanda elinye, 0.Funda yonke →; akukho manani angalinganiyo abomvu kwaye akukho alinganayo amnyama; kwaye akukho nto ku-30, okanye kuluhlu olude lwezikhewuizixhoboIsikhewuEsinye sezikhewu ezingama-37 ezinamanani kwirotha. Kwakhona: slot, cup.Funda yonke → ukusuka ku-11 ngokwewotshi ujikeleze ukuya ku-14 kwivili laseMelika. Hlanganisa imithetho kwaye akukho nani lisalayo. Ekuphela kwezikhewu ezingaphandle kolo luhlu ngu-0, 28, 9, 26, 30 no-2; u-30 uvalwe ngegama, kwaye ezinye ziqanda, alinganayo amnyama, okanye angalinganiyo abomvu. Umdlali olandela inkqubo akaze abheje kwaye akaze alahlekelwe. Inzuzo yekhasino kuyo iqanda, kwaye kuphela kwenkqubo ye-roulette enyanisekileyo ngendlela efika ngayo apho.
Iinkqubo ezinamagama, umgca omnye nganye
Iinkqubo ezithengiswa phantsi kwegama, okanye njengefomula yokuphumelela kwi-roulette, azahlukanga. Nganye iseti yeebheji, kwaye ibheji nganye ihlawula ivili i-2.70% yayo. U-Bollman (2024) uhlalutya eziliqela kwivili laseMelika, apho nganye ibiza i-5.26%; apha zikwivili laseYurophu.
Inguqulelo enyanisekileyo
Iinkqubo zitshintsha imilo yeseshoni: uphumelela kangaphi, iimpumelelo zinkulu kangakanani, imeko embi kakhulu imbi kangakanani. Ezo zizigqibo zokwenyani kwaye umdlali usenokukhetha imilo enye kunenye. Oko iinkqubo zingakutshintshiyo lixabiso, eliyi-2.70% yayo yonke into ebhejiweyo, kwaye kuba ukunyuswa kweebheji kubheja ngaphezu kokubheja ngokulinganayoisicwangcisoUkubheja ngokulinganayoUkubheja isixa esifanayo kuwo wonke umjikelo. Isiseko apho konke ukunyuswa kweebheji kuthelekiswa khona.Funda yonke →, kuhlawula ngakumbi kulo.
Imibuzo
Iinyanga ezintandathu zeeseshoni zeveki nganye malunga neeseshoni ezingama-25. I-Martingale iphumelela kwi-80% yazo. Iiseshoni ezilahlekayo ziyeza, kwaye zinkulu.
Umthetho wokuyeka unciphisa isixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo kwaye ngoko unciphisa ilahleko elindelekileyoizibaloIlahleko elindelekileyoIxabiso elilindelekileyo liphindwe ngesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo; isixa esiphakathi esilahlekayo kwiseshoni okanye kwixesha elithile.Funda yonke →. Awuyenzi ibe yinzuzo.
Hayi kwivili elingenamkhethe. Kwivili elithambekileyoilebhuIvili elithambekileyoIvili elineziphene ezenza ezinye izikhewu zibe namathuba angaphezulu kwe-1/37. Alifumaneki lula, linokubonwa kuphela ngamawaka emijikelo erekhodiweyo.Funda yonke →, eliyingxaki yefiziksi, hayi inkqubo.
Ukonwaba ngezibalo
Qala uzizame ngokwakho. Isisombululo ngasinye sisongiwe; sivule xa ukulungele.
Inkqubo yokuhlekisa kaMike Caro yango-1997 yevili laseMelika ivala obomvuibhejiObomvuIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 abomvu. NgesiFrentshi: rouge.Funda yonke → nomnyamaibhejiOmnyamaIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 amnyama. NgesiFrentshi: noir.Funda yonke →, angalinganiyo nalinganayo, namaqandaiviliIqandaIsikhewu esinye esiluhlaza esingagubungelwa yibheji yemali elinganayo, yedazini okanye yekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kwakhona: iqanda elinye, 0.Funda yonke →; amanani abomvu angalinganiyo namnyama alinganayo; inani 30; kunye nesikhewuizixhoboIsikhewuEsinye sezikhewu ezingama-37 ezinamanani kwirotha. Kwakhona: slot, cup.Funda yonke → ngasinye kuluhlu olusuka ku-11 lujikeleza ngakwicala lewotshi ukuya ku-14. Sebenzisa imithetho omnye ngexesha. Ngawaphi amanani aseleyo okubheja?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo Akukho nalinye. Inkqubo ayize ibheje, ngoko inzuzo yayo yekhasino iliqanda kanye.
Ukuvala obomvu, omnyama, angalinganiyo, alinganayo namaqanda kushiya amanani enye nganye namaqela amancinci phakathi ko-1 no-36.
Ukungabikho kwabomvu angalinganiyo nabamnyama alinganayo kushiya abomvu alinganayo (12, 14, 16, 18, 30, 32, 34, 36) nabamnyama angalinganiyo (11, 13, 15, 17, 29, 31, 33, 35): amanani alishumi elinesithandathu. Ukuvala u-30 kushiya alishumi elinesihlanu.
Kwivili laseMelika uluhlu olusuka ku-11 ngakwicala lewotshi ukuya ku-14 lugubungela izikhewu ezingama-32 kwezingama-38. Ezintandathu ezingaphandle kwalo ngu-0, 28, 9, 26, 30 no-2. Onke alishumi elinesihlanu aseleyo angaphakathi koluhlu, ngoko umthetho wokugqibela uyawasusa nawo. Inkqubo engaze ibheje kuphela kwenkqubo engaze ilahlekelwe, nto leyo yayiyinjongo kaCaro.
I-Kryptos iqhuba ii-MartingaleisicwangcisoMartingaleUkunyuswa kweebheji okuphindaphinda ibheji emva kokulahlekelwa ngakunye. Bona icandelo lezicwangciso ukuze wazi oko ikwenzayo nengakwenziyo.Funda yonke → ezintathu ngaxeshanye, enye kwisibini ngasinye seebheji zemali elinganayoibhejiIbheji yemali elinganayoObomvu/omnyama, angalinganiyo/alinganayo, aphezulu/aphantsi. Amanani ali-18, ihlawula u-1:1.Funda yonke → (aphezulu okanye aphantsi, angalinganiyo okanye alinganayo, obomvu okanye omnyama), ngeebheji 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 nokuyeka emva kwelahleko ezintandathu. Thatha enye kwezi zintathu kwivili laseYurophu. Kangaphi ilahlekelwa zonke iibheji ezintandathu, umjikelo wenkqubo omnye ufumana malini ngokomndilili, kwaye loo nto yinxalenye engakanani yemali ebhejiweyo?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo Ilahlekelwa zonke ezintandathu malunga kanye kwimijikelo yenkqubo engama-55, i-1.83% yexesha, kwaye oko kubiza iiyunithiimaliIyunithiIbheji esisiseko esetyenziswa yinkqubo okanye ngumdlali. Ukunyuswa kweebheji kuchazwa ngeeyunithi ukuze kusebenze kuyo nayiphi na itafile.Funda yonke → ezingama-63. Ngokomndilili umjikelo wenkqubo ulahlekelwa malunga ne-0.17 yeeyunithi kwezi-6.42 zeeyunithi ezibhejiweyo: i-2.70%, ixabiso lebheji nganye kwivili.
Ibheji ilahlekelwa ngamathuba angu-19/37, kuquka iqanda. Ezintandathu ngokulandelelana: (19/37)⁶ = 0.0183, malunga no-1 kuma-55, kwaye emva koko iibheji 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 = 63 ziphelile. Kungenjalo umjikelo wenkqubo uphela ngokuphumelela kunye ne-+1 yeyunithi.
Umndilili: 1 × (1 − 0.0183) − 63 × 0.0183 = 1 − 64 × 0.0183 = −0.17 weeyunithi.
Imali ebhejiweyo: ibheji yokuqala ihlala ibekwa, eyesibini kuphela emva kwelahleko, njalo njalo: 1 + 2 × (19/37) + 4 × (19/37)² + … + 32 × (19/37)⁵ = 6.42 weeyunithi. Kwaye −0.17/6.42 = −2.70%.
Imijikelo emithandathu ebhaliweyo igqiba kuphela ukuba ibheji nganye ikweliphi icala, kwaye ivili alinakuyazi. Ukuziqhuba zontathu kuphinda kathathu imali ebhejiweyo kunye nelahleko yomndilili. UBollman (2024) uyisebenzisa le nkqubo kwivili laseMelika, apho nganye kuzo ilahlekelwa kathandathu ngokulandelelana kwi-2.1% yexesha.
Uncumo
Ukuphumelela rhoqo nokuphumelela imali ngamanani ahlukeneyo.
Imithombo
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”
- Thorp, E. O. The Mathematics of Gambling.
- Doob, J. L. “Note on probability.”
- Halmos, P. R. “Invariants of certain stochastic transformations: the mathematical theory of gambling systems.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Bollman, M. Mathematics of the Big Four Casino Table Games: Blackjack, Baccarat, Craps, & Roulette.
- Bollman, M. Basic Gambling Mathematics: The Numbers Behind the Neon, 2nd ed.