Iintsomi · Iintsomi · imizuzu eyi-6

Intsomi: amanani afanele ukuphuma

“Ishumi elinesixhenxe alikavezi kwimijikelo eli-150. Lilixesha lalo.” Asilixesha lalo.

Impendulo emfutshane

Inani elingavelanga ixesha elide linamathuba afanayo ncam kumjikelo olandelayo njengalo naliphi na elinye: 1/37. Inkolelo yokuba “lilixesha lalo” yimpazamo yomngcakazi enebhodi yeziphumo eqhotyoshelweyo.

p(17 olandelayo)

1/37, qho

p(akukho 17 kwimijikelo eli-150)

1.7%

kwenzeka kangaphi kwindawo ethile

rhoqo

isigqibo

intsomi

Ibango

Iikhasino zibonisa iziphumo zokugqibela ezingama-20 ukuya kwezingama-500 kwaye zidla ngokuphawula amanani “abandayo” angabethanga ixesha elithile. Abadlali bafunda ibhodi, babone ukuba u-17 akavelanga kwimijikelo eli-150, baze bambheje kuba kufuneka ukuba lixesha lakhe. Ingqiqo ithi kwixesha elide inani ngalinye libetha kwi-1/37 yamaxesha, ngoko inani elisemva kufuneka libambe.

Kutheni ingalunganga

Imijikelo izimele. IbholaizixhoboIbholaIbhola encinci ephoswa emzileni ngokuchasene nerotha. Iibhola zanamhlanje zenziwe nge-ivorine okanye nge-Teflon, zi-18–21 mm.Funda yonke → ayazi ukuba u-17 akavelanga, kwaye isikhewuizixhoboIsikhewuEsinye sezikhewu ezingama-37 ezinamanani kwirotha. Kwakhona: slot, cup.Funda yonke → sinobukhulu obufanayo nobebenabo. Umlinganiselo wexesha elide uyahlangana ngokuxutywa, hayi ngokulungiswa: emva kweminye imijikelo eli-10,000 isikhewu semijikelo eli-150 yimpazamo yokujikelezisa, hayi kuba u-17 ubethe rhoqo ngokungaqhelekanga kodwa kuba isampulu ikhulile. Umthetho wamanani amakhuluizibaloUmthetho wamanani amakhuluUmndilili weziphumo ezizimeleyo usondela kwixabiso elilindelekileyo njengoko inani lemizamo likhula.Funda yonke → awufuni ukuba nawuphi na inani libambe; ufuna kuphela ukuba ukuguquguquka kwangaphambili kube kuncinci xa kuthelekiswa nesimbuku.

Kangaphi inani elithile lingaveli ubuncinci kwimijikelo eyi-k%

imijikelo engama-37

36.3%

imijikelo engama-74

13.2%

Imijikelo eli-100

6.5%

imijikelo eli-150

1.7%

imijikelo engama-200

0.4%

018.1536.3%

(36/37)ᵏ. Ngamanani angama-37 kwivili ngalinye kwikhasino nganye, ukungaveli kwemijikelo eli-150 kwenzeka kwindawo ethile ngoku.

Kutheni kuziva kulungile

Kuba kuyo yonke enye inxalenye yobomi, ukungabikho kuqikelela ukufika: ibhasi engekafiki imizuzu engamashumi amabini inamathuba amakhulu okufika kwemihlanu elandelayo. Kungenxa yokuba iibhasi zinexesha elimisiweyo. I-roulette ayinaxesha limisiweyo; inamathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lesiphumo, ukusuka ku-0 ukuya ku-1 okanye ku-0% ukuya ku-100%. Inani elinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda yonke →, kwaye amathuba asingomlinganiselo onyanzelekileyo. Imvakalelo ichanekile kuninzi lwehlabathi kwaye ayichanekanga evilini.

Uvavanyo

Rekhoda ikhulu lamanani “abandayo” kwiibhodi zeziphumo uze ubheje nganye kwimijikelo engama-37 elandelayo. Izinga lokubetha liya kuba yi-1/37 ngomjikelo, ngokufanayo nakuwo nawuphi na inani elikhethwe ngokungacwangciswanga, kungaphezulu okanye kungaphantsi ngenxa yengxolo. Ibhodi yeziphumo yinkcazelo yexesha elidlulileyo. Ayinanto iqikelelayo kwivili elingenamkhethe, kwaye kwivili elithambekileyoilebhuIvili elithambekileyoIvili elineziphene ezenza ezinye izikhewu zibe namathuba angaphezulu kwe-1/37. Alifumaneki lula, linokubonwa kuphela ngamawaka emijikelo erekhodiweyo.Funda yonke → (elinokufuna amawaka emijikelo ukuqinisekiswa) amanani ashushuintsomiInani elishushuInani eliphume kaninzi kunokulindelekileyo kutshanje. Kwivili elinobulungisa alixeli nto.Funda yonke →, hayi abandayo, angaba ngawona afanele ukubhejwa.

Ubungakanani besampulu Iziphumo ze-roulette: ukufunda ibhodi

Intsomi echaseneyo

“Ishumi elinesixhenxe lishushu, libheje” yimpazamo efanayo nophawu olujikiweyo. Zombini iinkolelo zinexabiso elilindelekileyoizibaloIxabiso elilindelekileyoIsiphumo esiphakathi kwibheji nganye ekuhambeni kwexesha elide. −1/37 yebheji kuyo yonke ibheji eqhelekileyo yaseYurophu.Funda yonke → elifanayo nokuvala amehlo ukhombe: −2.70% yebheji. Kumdlalo wedemo, qhuba imbali uze ubale ukuba kangaphi inani elibandayointsomiInani elibandayoInani elingakhange liphume imijikelo emininzi. Kwivili elinobulungisa alinalo ulwazi malunga nemijikelo ezayo.Funda yonke → libetha kwimijikelo engama-37 elandelayo; impendulo imalunga ne-63.7%, kanye njengalo naliphi na elinye inani.

Imibuzo

Ingaba ikhasino ibonisa amanani abandayo ukuze iqhathe abadlali?

Iyawabonisa kuba abadlali bayacela. Ibhodi ichanekile kwaye ayincedi nto.

Kuthekani ngenani elingabethanga kwimijikelo engama-500?

(36/37)⁵⁰⁰ ≈ 0.0001%: kunqabile, kwaye kusengu-1/37 kumjikelo olandelayo. Ukuba kuqhubeka kusenzeka kwivili elinye, lowo ngumbuzo wokuthambekela, kwaye impendulo ibiya kuba kukuphepha elo nani.

Ingaba likho inani elakha laba lixesha lalo?

Hayi.

Uncumo

Amathuba asingomlinganiselo onyanzelekileyo.

Imithombo

Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, uhlelo lwesi-3, 1968. Gambler’s ruin, isahluko XIV.
Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Isahluko 13, i-roulette.

ihlolwe ngo-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, iqanda elinyeindlela yokusebenza ↗imithombo ↗