Ingxaki: ivili lomhla wokuzalwa
Mingaphi imijikelo ngaphambi kokuba elinye inani liphinde liphume? Mbalwa kakhulu kunokuba uninzi lwabantu luqikelela.
Ingxaki yomhla wokuzalwa kwivili lezikhewuizixhoboIsikhewuEsinye sezikhewu ezingama-37 ezinamanani kwirotha. Kwakhona: slot, cup.Funda yonke → ezingama-37: emva nje kwemijikelo esi-8 kukho ithuba elingaphezu kwesiqingatha lokuba elinye inani sele liphume kabini. Abadlali bafunda ukuphinda njengeepatheni; kodwa kukuziphatha okulindelekileyo kwevili elifanelekileyo.
Ingxaki
Jikisa ivili laseYurophu elifanelekileyo. Mingaphi imijikelo de amathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lesiphumo, ukusuka ku-0 ukuya ku-1 okanye ku-0% ukuya ku-100%. Inani elinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda yonke → okuba ubuncinane imijikelo emibini ibonise inani elifanayo agqithe isiqingatha? Uninzi lwabadlali luqikelela malunga ne-18 okanye i-19, isiqingatha sama-37. Impendulo ngu-8.
Isisombululo
Bala amathuba okungaphindi uze uwathabathe kokupheleleyo. Emva kwemijikelo engu-k, p(onke ahlukile) = (37/37)(36/37)(35/37)…((38 − k)/37). Ku-k = 8: 1 × 0.973 × 0.946 × 0.919 × 0.892 × 0.865 × 0.838 × 0.811 ≈ 0.44, ngoko p(ukuphinda okuthile) ≈ 0.56. Ku-k = 14 ngu-0.93; ku-k = 20 ngu-0.996. Ingqondo isilela kuba inani lezibini zemijikelo likhula njengo-k², kwaye nasiphi na isibini sinokuhambelana.
Kutheni kubalulekile etafileni
Ibhodi yeziphumo zamanani angama-20 okugqibela iya kuhlala ibonisa ubuncinane ukuphinda okukodwa, kaninzi okubini okanye okuthathu. Abadlali babona “u-17 uphume kabini kwimijikelo elishumi” baze bagqibe ukuba u-17 ushushu; izibalo zomhla wokuzalwa zithi ukuphinda kwimijikelo elishumi kwenzeka ama-74% exesha kwaye inani eliphindayo alicwangciswanga. Ipatheni iyinyani; intsingiselo ayiyiyo.
Ingxaki elandelayo
Mingaphi imijikelo de inani elithile, masithi u-17, liphume kabini? Lowo ngumbuzo owahlukileyo onempendulo enkulu kakhulu: ukulinda okulindelekileyo yimijikelo engama-74, kwaye amathuba ka-17 amabini kwimijikelo engama-20 amalunga ne-10%. Umahluko phakathi “kwelinye inani liyaphinda” (imijikelo esi-8) kunye “neli nani liyaphinda” (imijikelo engama-74) ngumahluko wonke phakathi kwepatheni oyiqaphela emva koko noqikelelo olwenzayo kwangaphambili.
Zama
Qhuba umdlalo wedemo imijikelo elishumi uze ujonge imbali. Kuya kuhlala kukho ukuphinda. Phinda uwuqhube. Inani eliphindayo liya kwahluka. Kwenze oku amaxesha alishumi kwaye uya kube uyibonile ingxaki yomhla wokuzalwaizibaloIngxaki yomhla wokuzalwaBangaphi abantu abafunekayo phambi kokuba ababini mhlawumbi babe nomhla wokuzalwa omnye, okanye mingaphi imijikelo phambi kokuba inani mhlawumbi liphinde liphume. Kwivili elinezikhewu ezingama-37, imijikelo esi-8 yanele ukunika ithuba elingaphezulu kwesiqingatha.Funda yonke →; kwenze amaxesha aliwaka (izilinganisi zingakwenza) kwaye uya kube uyilinganisile.
Ifomula
Imibuzo
Ngokuchanekileyo, kunye nezikhewu ezingama-37 endaweni yeentsuku ezingama-365. Abantu abangama-23 banika ama-50% kwimihla yokuzalwa; imijikelo esi-8 inika ama-56% kwivili.
Ama-50% emva kwemijikelo emalunga ne-19. Isaqhelekile.
Hayi. Amawaka emijikelo evela kwivili elinye angabonisa; ukuphinda akusoze kubonise.
Ukonwaba ngezibalo
Qala uzizame ngokwakho. Isisombululo ngasinye sisongiwe; sivule xa ukulungele.
Ibhodi yeziphumo ecaleni kwevili laseMelika ibonisa imijikelo eli-16 yokugqibela. Kunokwenzeka kangakanani ukuba akukho nani livela kabini kuyo?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo Malunga ne-2.5%: malunga neebhodi ezingama-39 kwezingama-40 zibonisa ubuncinane ukuphindwa okunye.
Hamba umjikelo ngomjikelo. Umjikelo wokuqala ungaba yiyo nantoni na. Owesibini kufuneka uwuphose: amathuba angama-37 kwangama-38. Owesithathu kufuneka uphose omabini: ama-36 kwangama-38. Oweshumi elinesithandathu kufuneka uphose amanani alishumi elinesihlanu: ama-23 kwangama-38.
Phindaphinda: 38/38 × 37/38 × 36/38 × … × 23/38 ≈ 0.0246.
Ibhodi engenakuphindwa yiyo enqabileyo. Ibhodi enokuphindwa ayithethi nto ngevili.
Kwimijikelo elishumi yevili laseYurophu, ngawaphi amathuba okuba u-17 aphume kanye amaxesha amahlanu? Okuba elinye inani, naliphi na inani, liphume amaxesha amahlanu nangaphezulu? Kwaye okuba elinye inani liphume ubuncinane amaxesha amathathu kwimijikelo emine?
Bonisa isisombululo
Impendulo U-17 kanye amaxesha amahlanu: 1 kwi-315,576. Elinye inani amaxesha amahlanu nangaphezulu: malunga no-1 kwi-8,333. Elinye inani amaxesha amathathu nangaphezulu kwimijikelo emine: 1 kwama-349.
U-17 amaxesha amahlanu: khetha ukuba yeyiphi imijikelo emihlanu kwelishumi, iindlela ezingama-252, nganye inamathuba angu-(1/37)⁵ × (36/37)⁵. Kunye, 1 kwi-315,576.
Elinye inani: inani ngalinye kwangama-37 linamathuba angu-1 kwi-308,325 okuphuma amahlanu nangaphezulu, nto leyo enika ama-37 kwi-308,325, okanye 1 kwi-8,333. Imeko enqabileyo yamanani amabini aphuma amahlanu ngamnye ibalwa kabini, kodwa ukuyikhupha akutshintshi nto kolu kuchana.
Amaxesha amathathu kwimijikelo emine: kwinani elinye, 4 × 36 + 1 = 145 weziphumo ezinokubakho ezingama-37⁴; kulo naliphi na kumanani angama-37, 145/37³ = 1 kwama-349.
Kwivili leqandaiviliIqandaIsikhewu esinye esiluhlaza esingagubungelwa yibheji yemali elinganayo, yedazini okanye yekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kwakhona: iqanda elinye, 0.Funda yonke → eliphindiweyo, amanani ahambelanayo ngu-1 kwi-359,275, 1 kwi-9,243 no-1 kuma-368. Umahluko phakathi “ko-17” “nelinye inani” yingxaki yomhla wokuzalwaizibaloIngxaki yomhla wokuzalwaBangaphi abantu abafunekayo phambi kokuba ababini mhlawumbi babe nomhla wokuzalwa omnye, okanye mingaphi imijikelo phambi kokuba inani mhlawumbi liphinde liphume. Kwivili elinezikhewu ezingama-37, imijikelo esi-8 yanele ukunika ithuba elingaphezulu kwesiqingatha.Funda yonke → kwakhona: kukho iindlela ezingama-37 zokumangaliswa.
Uncumo
Into ethile iyaphinda kwangoko. Loo nto ithile ayicwangciswanga.
Imithombo
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, imibuzo nge-roulette.