Imizekelo inyathelo ngenyathelo · Umzekelo inyathelo ngenyathelo · imizuzu eyi-7

Umzekelo: uthotho lwe-Paroli

Iidola ezilishumi komnyama, ziphindaphindwa kabini emva kwempumelelo nganye, zigcinwe emva kweempumelelo ezintathu ngokulandelelana. I-Martingale ebuyela umva, umjikelo ngomjikelo.

Impendulo emfutshane

Iseshoni elinganisiweyo ye-Paroli yemijikelo engama-80. Iilahleko ezilishumi elinesithathu kumjikelo wokuqala, uthotho olwaphukileyo olungamashumi amabini anesine kunye neentathu ezigqityiweyo ezintathu ezihlawule i-$70 nganye. Isiphumo −$160 emva kokuba ibiphambili nge-$50. Inkqubo elahlekelwa rhoqo kwaye iphumelela kunqabile, ngemilo ezibalo eziyiqikelelayo.

isiseko

i-$10 komnyama

injongo

iimpumelelo ezi-3 ngokulandelelana

p(ezintathu)

11.5%

isiphumo kwezintathu ngazinye

+$70

Hamba ngenkqubo

Ukuphumelela kuqhubela phambili inyathelo elinye. Ilahleko, okanye impumelelo yesithathu, ibuyela ekuqaleni.

ibheji elandelayo1isiphumo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku0imijikelo0

Iibheji neziphumo zikwiiyunithi zebheji yesiseko.

Isicwangciso

Bheja i-$10 komnyamaibhejiOmnyamaIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 amnyama. NgesiFrentshi: noir.Funda yonke →. Emva kwempumelelo, yiyeke i-$20 ihlale. Emva kwempumelelo yesibini, yiyeke i-$40 ihlale. Emva kwempumelelo yesithathu, thatha i-$80 uze uqale kwakhona nge-$10. Ilahleko naphi na iqala kwakhona kwi-$10. Ilinge ngalinye libeka emngciphekweni i-$10 yemali yethu kwaye liphumelela i-$70 ukuba omnyama uvela kathathu ngokulandelelana, nto leyo yenzeka kwi-(18/37)³ = 11.5% yamaxesha. Silindele uthotho olugqityiweyo olunye malunga kumalinge alithoba.

Imijikelo 1–25

R B B R R B R B B R B B R R B R 0 B B B B R B B R. Amalinge alishumi elinesibini: amane alahleka kumjikelo wokuqala (−$10 nganye, enye yazo kwiqandaiviliIqandaIsikhewu esinye esiluhlaza esingagubungelwa yibheji yemali elinganayo, yedazini okanye yekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kwakhona: iqanda elinye, 0.Funda yonke →), amathathu alahleka kumjikelo wesibini (−$10 nganye, kuba i-$20 ibiyimali yekhasino kunye neyethu), amane alahleka kumjikelo wesithathu (−$10 nganye, ngendlela efanayo), ezintathu ezigqityiweyo ezinye kwimijikelo 18–20 (+$70). Isiphumo −$40. Uthotho olugqityiweyo lwaziva ngathi bubungqina. Ukusilela okulishumi elinanye kwaziva kungeyonto, nto leyo iyinjongo yoyilo.

ilingeulandelelwano (R = obomvu, B = omnyama)iibhejiisiphumo

1R10−$10

2B B R10, 20, 40−$10

3R10−$10

4B R10, 20−$10

5B B R10, 20, 40−$10

6–9B B R · R · B R · 0≤ 40−$40

10B B B10, 20, 40 → kuthathwa i-$80+$70

11–12B R · B B R≤ 40−$20

emva kwemijikelo engama-25amalinge ali-12, ezintathu ezi-1−$40

Ezintathu ezigqityiweyo ezinye ziziva ngathi bubungqina; iitshiphu ezilishumi elinanye ezilahleke endleleni ziziva kungeyonto.

Imijikelo 26–55

Ezinye ezintathu ezimbini, kwimijikelo 28–30 nakwi-37–39, nganye iyinxalenye yothotho lwabamnyama abane esabathatha emva kwabathathu: omnyama wesine waphumelela i-$10 entsha kwaye obomvuibhejiObomvuIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 abomvu. NgesiFrentshi: rouge.Funda yonke → olandelayo wathatha i-$20. Amalinge alishumi elinesihlanu, isiphumo kweli candelo +$10; isimbuku ukuza kuthi ga ngoku −$30; incopho +$50 kumjikelo wama-39. Ezintathu ezintathu kumalinge angama-27 yi-3.1 elindelekileyo; encotsheni iseshoni iphambili nge-$50 kwaye iziva ngathi yindlela yokuphumelela.

Le seshoni nezinye ezilithoba ezifana nayoisiphumo xa kuthelekiswa nokuqala

iiseshoni ezi-1,000 × imijikelo eyi-500 · mfusa p10/p25/p75/p90, luhlaza okwesibhakabhaka okukhanyayo umbindi, iisampulu ezi-82 ezifiphele · hambisa isalathisi phezu kwegrafu ukuze ubone ii-quantile kumjikelo

p10 −$780
p25 −$510
umbindi −$210
p75 +$90
p90 +$370

iiseshoni ezi-1,000 × imijikelo eyi-500 · i-y-axis inqunyulwe kwi-1st–99th percentile (iziphelo −$1,000 ukuya ku-+$1,570) · imijikelo eyi-500 · isiseko $10 · imali elinganayo

Uninzi lwemigca luhla kancinci ngamanyathelo e-$10 lutsibe nge-$70 ngamaxesha athile. Umndilili wezi zilishumi ngumndilili womdlali obheja ngokulinganayo: −2.70% yayo yonke into ebhejiweyo.

Imijikelo 56–80

Amalinge alahlekayo alishumi elinesithathu ngokulandelelana, alithoba kuwo kumjikelo wesibini okanye wesithathu apho uthotho lwaphela kusasele omnyama omnye okanye amabini. Isiphumo −$130 kweli candelo; ekugqibeleni −$160. Uthotho lokusilela lunamathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lesiphumo, ukusuka ku-0 ukuya ku-1 okanye ku-0% ukuya ku-100%. Inani elinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda yonke → amalunga nama-20%, oko kukuthi luya kwenzeka kumdlali we-ParoliisicwangcisoParoliUkunyuswa kweebheji okuhle: phindaphinda emva kokuphumelela, uqale kwakhona emva kokulahlekelwa okanye emva kokuphumelela kathathu ngokulandelelana. Kwakhona: i-Martingale ebuyela umva.Funda yonke → phantse kwiseshoni yesihlanu nganye yobu bude.

Iiakhawunti

Isixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo yi-$1,460 kwimijikelo engama-80 xa kuthelekiswa ne-$800 yomdlali obheja i-$10 ngokulinganayo: ukuyeka iibheji zihlale kwongeza kwisixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyoimaliIsixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyoIsixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo kwiseshoni okanye kwixesha elithile, kubalwa nemali ephumeleleyo ephinda ibhejwe. Kwakhona: handle, action.Funda yonke →. Ilahleko elindelekileyoizibaloIlahleko elindelekileyoIxabiso elilindelekileyo liphindwe ngesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo; isixa esiphakathi esilahlekayo kwiseshoni okanye kwixesha elithile.Funda yonke → kwi-$1,460 yi-$39; eyokwenyani −$160 ingaphantsi kokutenxa okuqhelekileyo (standard deviation)izibaloUkutenxa okuqhelekileyo (standard deviation)Ingcambu yesikwere yokwahluka; umgama oqhelekileyo wesiphumo ukusuka kwixabiso elilindelekileyo.Funda yonke → okunye, nto leyo ingaqapheleki. Umdlali obheja ngokulinganayo ecaleni kwethu ubenolindelo olufanayo kwidola nganye nesiphumo esinokujinga okumalunga nesiqingatha.

Isicwangciso sokubheja ngokulinganayo kwi-roulette

Oko kubonakaliswa yile seshoni

I-Paroli yi-MartingaleisicwangcisoMartingaleUkunyuswa kweebheji okuphindaphinda ibheji emva kokulahlekelwa ngakunye. Bona icandelo lezicwangciso ukuze wazi oko ikwenzayo nengakwenziyo.Funda yonke → ejongiswe phantsi: ilahlekelwa yiyunithiimaliIyunithiIbheji esisiseko esetyenziswa yinkqubo okanye ngumdlali. Ukunyuswa kweebheji kuchazwa ngeeyunithi ukuze kusebenze kuyo nayiphi na itafile.Funda yonke → enye uninzi lwexesha kwaye iphumelela iiyunithi ezisixhenxe ngamaxesha athile, endaweni yokuphumelela iyunithi enye uninzi lwexesha nokulahlekelwa ngamashumi amathandathu anesithathu ngamaxesha athile. Usasazeko alunabungozi kangako kuba inani elikhulu yimpumelelo, hayi ilahleko, kwaye ibheji ayize igqithe i-$40 ekuyi-$10 kuphela yethu. Ilahleko elindelekileyo kwidola nganye ayitshintshi. Yeyona nkqubo ingcono kumdlali ofuna ukwahlukaizibaloUkwahlukaUmlinganiselo wokuba iziphumo zisasazeke kangakanani zijikeleze ixabiso elilindelekileyo. Kuphezulu kwibheji yenani elinye, kuphantsi kwiibheji zemali elinganayo.Funda yonke → ngaphandle komwonyo, kwaye isabiza i-2.70% yesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo.

Imibuzo

Kutheni ugcina emva kwezintathu kungekho emva kwezine?

Ezine ngokulandelelana yi-5.6% kwaye zihlawula i-$150. Injongo yincasa nje; inzuzo yekhasino iyafana kuyo yonke injongo.

Ingaba imali yekhasino ngokwenene yeyekhasino?

Hayi. Emva kwempumelelo enye i-$20 esetafileni yeyakho. I-Paroli iziva ingabizi kuba ukulahlekelwa luthotho akukhangeleki njengokulahlekelwa yimali yakho. Kunjalo.

Ingaba i-Paroli ingcono kune-Martingale?

Ulindelo olufanayo, eyona bheji iphezulu incinci, akukho mwonyo womda wetafile. Ingcono ngazo zonke iindlela ngaphandle kweyona ibalulekileyo, engatshintshiyo.

Uncumo

Lahlekelwa kancinci rhoqo, phumelela kakhulu kunqabile. Okuchasene ne-Martingale, kwaye ixabiso liyafana.

Imithombo

Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Isahluko 13, i-roulette.

ihlolwe ngo-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, iqanda elinyeindlela yokusebenza ↗imithombo ↗