Imizekelo inyathelo ngenyathelo · Umzekelo inyathelo ngenyathelo · imizuzu eyi-6

Umzekelo: 1-3-2-6

Iibheji zeeyunithi ezi-1, 3, 2 no-6 xa uphumelela ngokulandelelana, ubuyela ku-1 nanini na ulahlekelwa. Ulandelelwano lokunyuswa kweebhejiisicwangcisoUkunyuswa kweebhejiNawuphi na umthetho otshintsha ibheji ngokweziphumo zangaphambili. Ukunyuswa okubi kuyinyusa emva kwelahleko, okuhle emva kokuphumelela.Funda yonke → okuhle, umjikelo ngomjikelo.

Impendulo emfutshane

Iseshoni elinganisiweyo ye-1-3-2-6 yemijikelo engama-60 nge-$10 kwiyunithi nganye kobomvuibhejiObomvuIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 abomvu. NgesiFrentshi: rouge.Funda yonke →. Amalinge angamashumi amathathu anesithathu: alishumi elinesithandathu adlula kwinyathelo lokuqala, asixhenxe adlula kwinyathelo lesibini, amabini agqitywa nge-+$120 nganye. Isiphumo −$50 emva kokuba ibiphambili nge-$80. I-Paroli enekhefu elakhelwe ngaphakathi.

iyunithi

i-$10 kobomvu

ulandelelwano

1 → 3 → 2 → 6

p(ukugqitywa)

5.6%

isiphumo xa kugqityiwe

+$120

Hamba ngenkqubo

Ukuphumelela kuqhubela phambili inyathelo elinye. Ilahleko, okanye impumelelo yesine, ibuyela ekuqaleni.

ibheji elandelayo1isiphumo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku0imijikelo0

Iibheji neziphumo zikwiiyunithi zebheji yesiseko.

Isicwangciso

Bheja iyunithiimaliIyunithiIbheji esisiseko esetyenziswa yinkqubo okanye ngumdlali. Ukunyuswa kweebheji kuchazwa ngeeyunithi ukuze kusebenze kuyo nayiphi na itafile.Funda yonke → e-1. Xa uphumelela, bheja ezi-3 (ezi-2 ezisetafileni ngoku kunye ne-1 eyongezelelweyo yethu). Xa uphumelela okwesibini, bheja ezi-2 uze uzigcine ezishiyekileyo. Xa uphumelela okwesithathu, bheja ezi-6. Impumelelo yesine igqiba ulandelelwano nge-+12 iiyunithi; nayiphi na ilahleko ibuyela ku-1. Ulandelelwano lucwangciswe ukuze ilahleko kwinyathelo lesibini ibize iiyunithi ezi-2 zizonke, kwinyathelo lesithathu isasishiya kwi-+2 (sikwi-+4 emva kwenyathelo lesibini kwaye sibeka emngciphekweni ezi-2), kwaye kwinyathelo lesine isishiya silingana (sikwi-+6 kwaye sibeka emngciphekweni ezi-6). Into etsalayo kukuba iilahleko kumanyathelo esithathu nesine zibiza imali encinci yethu.

Imijikelo 1–30

Amalinge alishumi elinesibhozo. Alishumi alahleka kwinyathelo lokuqala (−$10 nganye), amahlanu kwinyathelo lesibini (−$20 nganye), amabini kwinyathelo lesithathu (+$20 nganye), elinye lagqitywa kwimijikelo 27–30 (R R R R, +$120). Isiphumo −$40 emva kwemijikelo engama-30, emva kokuba besikwi-−$160 kumjikelo wama-26. Ulandelelwano olugqityiweyo lwaziva ngathi yinkqubo esebenzayo; yayizi-5.6% zifika ngexesha lazo.

ilingeulandelelwano (P = uphumelele, L = ulahlekile)iibhejiimali yethu esemngciphekweniisiphumo

1L10$10−$10

2P L10, 30$20−$20

3P P L10, 30, 20$0+$20

4–17ubukhulu L kwinyathelo 1≤ 30≤ $20−$150

18P P P P10, 30, 20, 60$0+$120

emva kwama-30amalinge ali-18, eli-1 ligqityiwe−$40

Imijikelo 31–60

Amalinge alishumi elinesihlanu, elinye lagqitywa kwimijikelo 44–47 nge-+$120, amabini afika kwinyathelo lesine aza alahleka apho (nganye $0 isiphumo: +$60 iphumelelwe, emva koko i-$60 yabhejwa yalahleka). Isiphumo −$10 kweli candelo; ekugqibeleni −$50; incopho +$80 kumjikelo wama-47. Ukugqitywa kabini kumalinge angama-33, xa kulindelwe i-1.8: isampulu efanelekileyo.

Ukunyuswa kweebheji okuhle: le seshoni nezinye ezilishumi elinanye ezifana nayoisiphumo xa kuthelekiswa nokuqala

iiseshoni ezi-1,000 × imijikelo eyi-500 · mfusa p10/p25/p75/p90, luhlaza okwesibhakabhaka okukhanyayo umbindi, iisampulu ezi-82 ezifiphele · hambisa isalathisi phezu kwegrafu ukuze ubone ii-quantile kumjikelo

p10 −$800
p25 −$520
umbindi −$240
p75 +$70
p90 +$350

iiseshoni ezi-1,000 × imijikelo eyi-500 · i-y-axis inqunyulwe kwi-1st–99th percentile (iziphelo −$1,000 ukuya ku-+$1,200) · imijikelo eyi-500 · isiseko $10 · imali elinganayo

Iilahleko ezincinci ezizinzileyo, ukutsiba ngamaxesha athile. I-1-3-2-6 ne-Paroli zinale milo; ulandelelwano lutshintsha ubukhulu kuphela.

Iiakhawunti

Isixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo simalunga ne-$1,200 xa kuthelekiswa ne-$600 ngokubheja ngokulinganayo. Ilahleko elindelekileyoizibaloIlahleko elindelekileyoIxabiso elilindelekileyo liphindwe ngesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo; isixa esiphakathi esilahlekayo kwiseshoni okanye kwixesha elithile.Funda yonke → yi-$32; eyokwenyani −$50, ngaphakathi kokutenxa okuqhelekileyo (standard deviation)izibaloUkutenxa okuqhelekileyo (standard deviation)Ingcambu yesikwere yokwahluka; umgama oqhelekileyo wesiphumo ukusuka kwixabiso elilindelekileyo.Funda yonke → okunye. Uyilo lolandelelwano luthetha ukuba uninzi lwemali esetafileni kwilinge elide yimali esiyiphumelele imijikelo emibini ngaphambili, nto leyo iyinkohliso eyenza kubonakale kukhululekile. Yimali yethu ukusukela kumzuzu umqhubi ayihlawula ngawo.

Iitshiphu ezihlawulwe imijikelo emibini edlulileyo sele ziyimali yomdlali uqobo.

Oko kubonakaliswa yile seshoni

I-1-3-2-6 yi-ParoliisicwangcisoParoliUkunyuswa kweebheji okuhle: phindaphinda emva kokuphumelela, uqale kwakhona emva kokulahlekelwa okanye emva kokuphumelela kathathu ngokulandelelana. Kwakhona: i-Martingale ebuyela umva.Funda yonke → ebubukhulu beebheji bulungelelanisiweyo ukuze amanyathelo akamva aziveke ngathi asimahla. AmathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lesiphumo, ukusuka ku-0 ukuya ku-1 okanye ku-0% ukuya ku-100%. Inani elinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda yonke → okugqitywa (18/37)⁴ = 5.6% kunye nentlawuloimaliIntlawuloOko ibheji ephumeleleyo ikubuyisayo, okuxelwa njengo-“X ku-1” ngaphezulu kwebheji ebuyisiweyo.Funda yonke → yokugqitywa yeeyunithi ezili-12 amiselwe zizibalo; indlela yokubheja igqiba kuphela ukuba i-2.70% engenakuphepheka yahlulwa njani phakathi kweelahleko ezininzi ezincinci nempumelelo embalwa emikhulu. Kumdlali okonwabelayo ukulandela ulandelelwano, ayinabungozi. Ayiyondlela yokuphumelela.

Imibuzo

Kutheni i-1-3-2-6 kungekho i-1-2-4-8?

I-1-2-4-8 yi-Paroli ukuya kwiimpumelelo ezine; ibeka yonke inqwaba emngciphekweni kwinyathelo ngalinye. I-1-3-2-6 igcina iiyunithi ezi-2 emva kwenyathelo lesibini, ngoko ilahleko kwinyathelo lesithathu ayikubizi nto kwimali yakho. Ulindelo olufanayo.

Iseshoni epheleleyo idla ngokukhangeleka njani?

Ilahleko encinci, enencopho enye okanye ezimbini. Malunga neeseshoni ezimbini kwezintlanu ziphela uphambili emva kwemijikelo engama-60 ngale yunithi.

Ndingaqhubeka emva kokugqitywa?

Abanye abadlali baqhubeka nge-1-3-2-6-12. Inyathelo elilandelayo liphumelela kwi-2.7% yamaxesha (obomvu kahlanu ngokulandelelana) kwaye imilo iyafana.

Uncumo

Iimpumelelo ezine ngokulandelelana: 5.6%. Ulandelelwano lugqiba kuphela indlela oziva ngayo.

Imithombo

Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Isahluko 13, i-roulette.

ihlolwe ngo-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, iqanda elinyeindlela yokusebenza ↗imithombo ↗