Isicwangciso se-Paroli kwi-roulette (i-Martingale ebuyela umva)
Isicwangciso se-Paroli kwi-roulette siphinda kabini emva kokuphumelela kwaye sibuyela ekuqaleni emva kwelahleko okanye emva kokuphumelela kathathu ngokulandelelana.
Asiloyisi ivili; sitshintsha nje indlela iilahleko ezifika ngayo. I-Paroli ibeka emngciphekweni ibheji enye yesiseko yemali yakho ngomjikelo wenkqubo, ize iqhubeke ibheja ngeenzuzo kwezinye. Ilahleko elindelekileyoizibaloIlahleko elindelekileyoIxabiso elilindelekileyo liphindwe ngesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo; isixa esiphakathi esilahlekayo kwiseshoni okanye kwixesha elithile.Funda yonke → ayitshintshi.
Hamba ngenkqubo
Ukuphumelela kuqhubela phambili inyathelo elinye. Ilahleko, okanye impumelelo yesithathu, ibuyela ekuqaleni.
Iibheji neziphumo zikwiiyunithi zebheji yesiseko.
Isebenza njani inkqubo ye-Paroli kwi-roulette?
Bheja iyunithiimaliIyunithiIbheji esisiseko esetyenziswa yinkqubo okanye ngumdlali. Ukunyuswa kweebheji kuchazwa ngeeyunithi ukuze kusebenze kuyo nayiphi na itafile.Funda yonke → enye. Uphumelele, uze uyishiye yonke etafileni: ibheji elandelayo ziiyunithi ezimbini. Uphumelele kwakhona, ibe zine. Uphumelele okwesithathu, uqokelele iiyunithi ezisixhenxe zenzuzo uze ubuyele kwenye. Ulahlekelwe nangaliphi na ixesha, nawe ubuyela kwenye. Leyo yinkqubo iphela. Emva kokuphumelela kokuqala ubheja ngeenzuzo, ngoko eyona nto ingalahlwa yimali yakho yokudlalaimaliImali yokudlalaIsixa esipheleleyo esibekelwe ukudlala. Ulawulo lwemali yokudlala kukugqiba ukuba ingakanani kuyo oyibeka emngciphekweni kwibheji nganye nakwiseshoni nganye.Funda yonke → kumjikelo wenkqubo nawuphi na yiyunithi enye. Ukuphumelela kathathu ngokulandelelana kwiibheji zemali elinganayo kwenzeka ngamathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lesiphumo, ukusuka ku-0 ukuya ku-1 okanye ku-0% ukuya ku-100%. Inani elinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda yonke → angu-(18/37)³ = 11.5%, malunga nomjikelo wenkqubo omnye kwabasithoba.
Ijongeka njani iseshoni?
Ukuvuza okucothayo nokutsiba ngamaxesha athile. Cinga ngokuthenga itikiti elincinci elifanayo kaninzi: ngalinye libiza iyunithi enye, uninzi alinanto, kwaye malunga nelinye kwasithoba lihlawula isixhenxe. Amathuba okugqiba iseshoni yemijikelo eli-100 ngenzuzo aphantsi (malunga ne-30%) kuba uninzi lweeseshoni alunayo imijikelo yenkqubo egqityiweyo eyaneleyo ukuvala iilahleko ezingapheliyo zeyunithi enye; xa iseshoni igqiba iphambili, ihlala igqiba iphambili kakhulu.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- umbindi −$300
- p75 +$30
- p90 +$320
Ingaba inkqubo ye-Paroli iyasebenza?
Hayi. Itshintsha imo yeelahleko, hayi ubukhulu bazo. Makube p = 18/37. Uphumelela u-7 ngamathuba p³ = 0.115; ulahlekelwa yi-1 ngamathuba 1 − p³ = 0.885. Isiphumo esilindelekileyo ngomjikelo wenkqubo: 7(0.115) − 1(0.885) = 0.805 − 0.885 = −0.08 iiyunithi. Iiyunithi ezilindelekileyo ezibhejwayo ngomjikelo wenkqubo: 1 + 2p + 4p² = 1 + 0.973 + 0.947 = 2.92. Yahlula: −0.08 / 2.92 = −2.7%. Yonke inkqubo inika eli nani xa usenza ukwahlula.
Ingcinga ehendayo kukuba iitshiphuimaliItshiphuUphawu olumele isixa esimiselweyo, olubekwa kwibhodi yokubheja ukwenza ibheji. Kwakhona: check.Funda yonke → eziqhubeka zibhejwa yimali yekhasino, ngoko ukuzibheja akubizi nto. Zezakho ukusukela ngomzuzu ezihlawulwe ngawo, kwaye nganye ebuyiselwa etafileni ithwala kwa-2.70% efanayo.
Kuthekani ukuba ulinda ukuphumelela kane ngokulandelelana?
I-ParoliisicwangcisoParoliUkunyuswa kweebheji okuhle: phindaphinda emva kokuphumelela, uqale kwakhona emva kokulahlekelwa okanye emva kokuphumelela kathathu ngokulandelelana. Kwakhona: i-Martingale ebuyela umva.Funda yonke → ukuya ekuphumeleleni kane iguqula iyunithi enye ibe zi-16, inzuzo eli-15, ngamathuba angu-(18/37)⁴ = 5.6%. UTaylor (2021) ubuza umbuzo obukhali ngakumbi: xa unemali yokudlala yeeyunithi ezimbalwa, angakanani amathuba okufumana uthotho olunjalo ngaphambi kokuba imali yokudlala iphele? Umjikelo wenkqubo ngamnye ongaphumelelanga ubiza kanye iyunithi enye, ngoko ngeeyunithi ezili-15 impendulo ngu-1 − (1 − 0.056)¹⁵ = 58%, ngcono kune-48.6% yokubeka zonke ezili-15 kobomvuibhejiObomvuIbheji yemali elinganayo kumanani ali-18 abomvu. NgesiFrentshi: rouge.Funda yonke → kanye. Ingxaki ibonakala kwamanye amanani. Uthotho luhlala lufika emva kwemijikelo yenkqubo emininzi engaphumelelanga, ngoko inzuzo xa ifika ingumndilili weeyunithi ezi-9, hayi ezili-15, kwaye ngenxa yokuba ukunyuswa kweebhejiisicwangcisoUkunyuswa kweebhejiNawuphi na umthetho otshintsha ibheji ngokweziphumo zangaphambili. Ukunyuswa okubi kuyinyusa emva kwelahleko, okuhle emva kokuphumelela.Funda yonke → kubheja imali eninzi xa kuyonke, isiphumo saso somndilili sibi ngakumbi kunesebheji enye.
Ingaba kubalulekile ukuba uyeka phi?
Kuphela kwimo. I-Paroli ukuya ekuphumeleleni kabini (uqokelela u-3) okanye kane (uqokelela ezili-15) itshintsha izinga lokufumana kunye nebhaso, hayi inzuzo yekhasino. I-“Parlay” kwibheji yenani elinye (vumela inzuzo ka-35 ku-1 ihlale) yingcinga efanayo ene-p = 1/37 kunye nentlawuloimaliIntlawuloOko ibheji ephumeleleyo ikubuyisayo, okuxelwa njengo-“X ku-1” ngaphezulu kwebheji ebuyisiweyo.Funda yonke → ka-1,295 ku-1 xa uphumelela kabini ngokulandelelana, yiyo loo nto ikakhulu ilibali, hayi into eyenziwayo.
Ngubani oyikhethayo, kwaye ngoba?
Abadlali abafuna ilahleko enkulu ecacileyo nencinci ngomjikelo wenkqubo kwaye bonwabile ukulahlekelwa kancinci-kancinci ngenxa yethuba lenzuzo enkulu. Ngumfanekiso osesipilini wengqondo we-MartingaleisicwangcisoMartingaleUkunyuswa kweebheji okuphindaphinda ibheji emva kokulahlekelwa ngakunye. Bona icandelo lezicwangciso ukuze wazi oko ikwenzayo nengakwenziyo.Funda yonke →: i-Martingale ikwenza uzive uphumelela de kufike ubusuku ongaphumeleli ngabo; i-Paroli ikwenza uzive ulahlekelwa de kufike ubusuku ongalahlekelwa ngabo. Ikhasino ithatha i-2.70% yesixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyoimaliIsixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyoIsixa esipheleleyo esibhejiweyo kwiseshoni okanye kwixesha elithile, kubalwa nemali ephumeleleyo ephinda ibhejwe. Kwakhona: handle, action.Funda yonke → nangayiphi na indlela.
Isilinganisi · Paroli
Iiseshoni ezi-2,000 zeebheji zemali elinganayo ukusuka kwimali yokudlala ye-$1,000.
Ibheji yesiseko $10 · umda wetafile $500 · imijikelo eyi-100 ngeseshoni
Imibuzo
Ikhuseleke ngakumbi ngengqiqo yokuba ayinakuvelisa ilahleko enye eyintlekele. Ayibizi kancinci: ilahleko elindelekileyo ngeyunithi ebhejiweyo iyafana ncam.
Nayiphi na indawo yokuyeka isebenza ngokufanayo ngokwezibalo. Isithathu siqhelekile kuba ibhaso (iiyunithi ezi-7) livakala lifanele ukulindwa kwaye izinga lokufumana (11.5%) alikho ngaphandle kwethemba.
Uncumo
Ukuqhubeka ubheja ngeenzuzo kusekukubheja.
Imithombo
- RouletteDoc. Roulette strategies overview.
- Roulette77. Strategy description and examples.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.